If you have a portfolio of shares and some have done well and some badly, which are you most likely to sell?
Contrary to expectations, we are more likely to keep those that have lost money, says The Times journalist Matthew Syed in Black Box Thinking.
How so? Because a paper loss is a real loss and we don’t want to admit, even to ourselves, that we’ve made a mistake, he says.
The name of this book, which explores why most people never learn from their mistakes, comes from an industry that actively embraces failure — aviation. Today 36.4 million commercial flights carry three billion passengers, but only 210 people died in 2013.
And for every one million flights on western-built jets, airline association Iata says there were just 0.41 accidents.
In 2014, even accounting for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370’s 239 deaths, the rate per million fell to a historic low of 0.23. Compare that to the US healthcare system.
In 2013, a US study in the Journal of Patient Safety put the number of premature deaths associated with preventable harm (misdiagnosis, wrong drugs, injury during surgery, post-operative complications etc) at more than 400,000 a year — the equivalent of two jumbo jets falling out of the sky every 24 hours.
Why? In aviation, failure is regarded as a “precious learning opportunity for all pilots”; its system is data-rich and encourages incident reporting. If a near-miss is reported within 10 days, pilots enjoy immunity. In 2005, a number of reports were filed about a problem at a Kentucky airport; it turned out a nearby, lit-up mural was misleading pilots.
A warning email was sent within minutes and the mural and lights were removed within days.
Mr Syed says the issue is not just with health care. Humans have an allergic attitude to failure, he warns.
He throws out an exhausting number of examples: from the US penal system to global poverty; quantitative easing; Iraq and the fallacy of weapons of mass destruction; the technical and business worlds of Apple, Dropbox, 3M, Unilever and Dyson; and the sporting prowess of Mercedes Formula One and Team Sky cycling.
But they are powerful. Unilever biologists, he points out, used simple trial and error, patiently working their way through 449 iterations to improve a factory nozzle and prevent washing powder blockages in the machinery. That’s 449 failures for one success.
Black Box Thinking: The Surprising Truth About Success is out in hardback and released in paperback in April 2016.
q&a denial creeps up the order
Suzanne Locke reveals more insight's from Matthew Syed's Black Box Thinking:
How do companies embrace failure in real life?
Marginal gains. Mr Syed watches the McLaren Formula One team in action at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix of 2014 and finds the whole team, from chief strategist to Lewis Hamilton, will sit to review up to 50,000 channels of data, say from the qualifier’s pit stops, to “optimise hundreds of thousands of small items to the nth degree”.
With so much data available, how do you test?
The “gold standard” is the randomised control trial (RCT), in which a treatment group is compared with a control group. The credit card company Capital One tests everything from font types to call centre script wording. Google tested 40 different colours for its toolbar by tracking its entire Google Mail user base’s click preferences based on colour.
How do leaders handle failure?
Mr Syed says chief executives are the worst culprits. He says denial increases going up the pecking order — these are often the people with the most to lose, and use spin and PR to “bolster post hoc justifications”.
And entrepreneurs?
Generally, technology entrepreneurs are “brilliant theorists who can perform complex mathematics”, according to Mr Syed. If they can fuse those skills with a positive attitude to failure, what you get is a “minimal viable product model”, where a prototype is tested on the early adopters to see if the product is actually viable and what can be improved by what the consumers like. This “hardwires the evolutionary process into the design of the business”.
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
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World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
DSC Eagles 23 Dubai Hurricanes 36
Eagles
Tries: Bright, O’Driscoll
Cons: Carey 2
Pens: Carey 3
Hurricanes
Tries: Knight 2, Lewis, Finck, Powell, Perry
Cons: Powell 3
Women%E2%80%99s%20Asia%20Cup
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Fast%20X
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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MATCH INFO:
Second Test
Pakistan v Australia, Tuesday-Saturday, 10am daily at Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Entrance is free
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War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
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Match info:
Portugal 1
Ronaldo (4')
Morocco 0
Abu Dhabi Card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,400m
National selection: AF Mohanak
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 1,400m
National selection: Jayide Al Boraq
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 100,000 1,400m
National selection: Rocket Power
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh 180,000 1,600m
National selection: Ihtesham
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,600m
National selection: Noof KB
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 2.200m
National selection: EL Faust
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)