So Dubai Land Department is planning new rules for off-plan sales and its director general Sultan bin Mejren is warning that house prices may rise 35 to 40 per cent this year. However, having claimed the crown of fastest growing house prices in the world for the first nine months of 2013, Dubai homeowners will probably see lower house price gains in 2014.
This forecast is easy enough to make. Knight Frank reported Dubai house prices rising by 28.5 per cent in the first nine months of 2013, the fastest growth in the world. That was actually a lot lower than Cluttons’ estimate of a 53 per cent price increase.
Is that not an unsustainable price spike? That said, the risk of a substantial correction from the runaway gains of the past two years is low.
Price rises on this scale are almost always unsustainable in any market because of buyer fatigue. Basically the market runs out of buyers due to the rush to buy.
True, Chinese house prices have rocketed for a year or two at this kind of clip in the past decade, but there have been some huge corrections in cities like Shanghai too. Dubai, of course, beat them all with its 60 per cent house price crash in 2009.
Is history going to repeat itself so soon? That looks unlikely.
There’s been nothing like the borrowing to finance speculation in property during the Dubai boom before 2009. What has fuelled the market in the past two years has been a strong influx of cash buyers from all over the world, although with particularly strong growth in buyers from Russia, China and Arab countries. It’s a 55 to 60 per cent cash market.
Dubai property looked a good buy as a depressed asset class with house prices way below those of comparable global hub cities such as Singapore or Mumbai, let alone Hong Kong or London.
Many of the same buyers also own homes there. Dubai has also offered good, tax-free rental yields at a time when such income streams are increasingly hard to find in a world of low interest rates.
Nonetheless, as far as I can tell the Dubai property market changed significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. The villas I tipped on my website back in the second quarter of 2012 in Jumeirah Park seemed to peak in price in the late summer of last year and have dropped about 10 per cent since. Still, those who invested are still 65 per cent up on that deal.
The sudden doubling of the transaction tax from 2 to 4 per cent in October caused a hiatus in the market when some transactions collapsed. Similarly a tightening of mortgage deposit requirements by the UAE Central Bank from December 28 has dampened marginal demand.
A year ago the total number of residential units for sale and rent in Dubai on the website propertyfinder.ae was 45,000, well down on the mind-boggling 105,000 in the crisis. In the middle of last month, there were 73,000 units there for sale or rent.
The fear for the immediate future is that demand for Dubai property is probably already peaking for this cycle, while the supply of new units is just beginning to dump a lot of stock on to the market. At the very least this should moderate the recent upward momentum in prices.
If it were combined with another global financial crisis, say a repeat this time of the 1994 bond market crash for instance, then we could see a far more serious correction. In 1994 global interest rates doubled and that smacked many equity and housing markets hard.
Dubai is indeed mainly a cash market for real estate. But where are the buyers getting all that cash to invest? The chances are that some of it is being thrown off by rising global equity prices or being borrowed cheaply elsewhere. Besides, the influx of new buyers has been mainly from overseas and foreign investors well known to be fickle.
Then again we may be too early with this warning.
Knight Frank has Dubai as the best performing real estate market in the world again in 2014, albeit with prices up by a lower 10 to 15 per cent. Momentum in property prices often works this way and the up cycles are usually longer than in stock markets.
Still, the best price gains are most likely behind us.
Peter Cooper is the editor of ArabianMoney.net
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
GCC-UK%20Growth
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Company%20Profile
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
Company%20Profile
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Spider-Man%202
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Insomniac%20Games%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%20Sony%20Interactive%20Entertainment%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPlayStation%205%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lupita%20Nyong'o%2C%20Joseph%20Quinn%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Sarnoski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
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MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
Omar Yabroudi's factfile
Born: October 20, 1989, Sharjah
Education: Bachelor of Science and Football, Liverpool John Moores University
2010: Accrington Stanley FC, internship
2010-2012: Crystal Palace, performance analyst with U-18 academy
2012-2015: Barnet FC, first-team performance analyst/head of recruitment
2015-2017: Nottingham Forest, head of recruitment
2018-present: Crystal Palace, player recruitment manager
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
The%20specs
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20UAE%20men%E2%80%99s%20cricketer%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWhen%20he%20debuted%20against%20Bangladesh%20aged%2016%20years%20and%20314%20days%2C%20he%20became%20the%20youngest%20ever%20to%20play%20for%20the%20men%E2%80%99s%20senior%20team.%20He%20broke%20the%20record%20set%20by%20his%20World%20Cup%20squad-mate%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20of%2017%20years%20and%2044%20days.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20wicket-taker%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20taking%20the%20wicket%20of%20Bangladesh%E2%80%99s%20Litton%20Das%20on%20debut%20in%20Dubai%2C%20Aayan%20became%20the%20youngest%20male%20cricketer%20to%20take%20a%20wicket%20against%20a%20Full%20Member%20nation%20in%20a%20T20%20international.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20in%20T20%20World%20Cup%20history%3F%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAayan%20does%20not%20turn%2017%20until%20November%2015%20%E2%80%93%20which%20is%20two%20days%20after%20the%20T20%20World%20Cup%20final%20at%20the%20MCG.%20If%20he%20does%20play%20in%20the%20competition%2C%20he%20will%20be%20its%20youngest%20ever%20player.%20Pakistan%E2%80%99s%20Mohammed%20Amir%2C%20who%20was%2017%20years%20and%2055%20days%20when%20he%20played%20in%202009%2C%20currently%20holds%20the%20record.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Who is Tim-Berners Lee?
Sir Tim Berners-Lee was born in London in a household of mathematicians and computer scientists. Both his mother, Mary Lee, and father, Conway, were early computer scientists who worked on the Ferranti 1 - the world's first commercially-available, general purpose digital computer. Sir Tim studied Physics at the University of Oxford and held a series of roles developing code and building software before moving to Switzerland to work for Cern, the European Particle Physics laboratory. He developed the worldwide web code as a side project in 1989 as a global information-sharing system. After releasing the first web code in 1991, Cern made it open and free for all to use. Sir Tim now campaigns for initiatives to make sure the web remains open and accessible to all.
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5