Best property price gains in Dubai are done and dusted



So Dubai Land Department is planning new rules for off-plan sales and its director general Sultan bin Mejren is warning that house prices may rise 35 to 40 per cent this year. However, having claimed the crown of fastest growing house prices in the world for the first nine months of 2013, Dubai homeowners will probably see lower house price gains in 2014.

This forecast is easy enough to make. Knight Frank reported Dubai house prices rising by 28.5 per cent in the first nine months of 2013, the fastest growth in the world. That was actually a lot lower than Cluttons’ estimate of a 53 per cent price increase.

Is that not an unsustainable price spike? That said, the risk of a substantial correction from the runaway gains of the past two years is low.

Price rises on this scale are almost always unsustainable in any market because of buyer fatigue. Basically the market runs out of buyers due to the rush to buy.

True, Chinese house prices have rocketed for a year or two at this kind of clip in the past decade, but there have been some huge corrections in cities like Shanghai too. Dubai, of course, beat them all with its 60 per cent house price crash in 2009.

Is history going to repeat itself so soon? That looks unlikely.

There’s been nothing like the borrowing to finance speculation in property during the Dubai boom before 2009. What has fuelled the market in the past two years has been a strong influx of cash buyers from all over the world, although with particularly strong growth in buyers from Russia, China and Arab countries. It’s a 55 to 60 per cent cash market.

Dubai property looked a good buy as a depressed asset class with house prices way below those of comparable global hub cities such as Singapore or Mumbai, let alone Hong Kong or London.

Many of the same buyers also own homes there. Dubai has also offered good, tax-free rental yields at a time when such income streams are increasingly hard to find in a world of low interest rates.

Nonetheless, as far as I can tell the Dubai property market changed significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. The villas I tipped on my website back in the second quarter of 2012 in Jumeirah Park seemed to peak in price in the late summer of last year and have dropped about 10 per cent since. Still, those who invested are still 65 per cent up on that deal.

The sudden doubling of the transaction tax from 2 to 4 per cent in October caused a hiatus in the market when some transactions collapsed. Similarly a tightening of mortgage deposit requirements by the UAE Central Bank from December 28 has dampened marginal demand.

A year ago the total number of residential units for sale and rent in Dubai on the website propertyfinder.ae was 45,000, well down on the mind-boggling 105,000 in the crisis. In the middle of last month, there were 73,000 units there for sale or rent.

The fear for the immediate future is that demand for Dubai property is probably already peaking for this cycle, while the supply of new units is just beginning to dump a lot of stock on to the market. At the very least this should moderate the recent upward momentum in prices.

If it were combined with another global financial crisis, say a repeat this time of the 1994 bond market crash for instance, then we could see a far more serious correction. In 1994 global interest rates doubled and that smacked many equity and housing markets hard.

Dubai is indeed mainly a cash market for real estate. But where are the buyers getting all that cash to invest? The chances are that some of it is being thrown off by rising global equity prices or being borrowed cheaply elsewhere. Besides, the influx of new buyers has been mainly from overseas and foreign investors well known to be fickle.

Then again we may be too early with this warning.

Knight Frank has Dubai as the best performing real estate market in the world again in 2014, albeit with prices up by a lower 10 to 15 per cent. Momentum in property prices often works this way and the up cycles are usually longer than in stock markets.

Still, the best price gains are most likely behind us.

Peter Cooper is the editor of ArabianMoney.net

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
The%20specs
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SPECS

Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The bio

Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.

Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.

Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.

Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.

'My Son'

Director: Christian Carion

Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis

Rating: 2/5

Joker: Folie a Deux

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson

Director: Todd Phillips 

Rating: 2/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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The drill

Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.

Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”

Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”

Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.” 

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

The biog

Siblings: five brothers and one sister

Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota

Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym

Favourite place: UAE

Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera

What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books