Idex 2021: What to expect at the Middle East's biggest defence expo

Cyber security, electronic warfare and autonomous and ground-based air defence systems remain of major interest to the region’s militaries, analysts say

Charles Dufour of Cebair, with the Chimera, an anti-drone system. Victor Besa / The National 

Idex 2021, the first major in-person exhibition held in Abu Dhabi since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, opened its doors on Sunday morning. Victor Besa / The National

Abdulelah Al Mohaimeed, of Wahaj of Saudi Arabia, shows his company's 50-calibre heavy machine gun, at Idex 2021 in Abu Dhabi. Victor Besa / The National

Saeed Al Mansoori examines a Glock 9mm pistol at at Idex 2021. The event features up to 1,000 defence companies. Victor Besa / The National

A model of the NHIndustries NH90 multi-role military helicopter on display at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Visitors view a Desert Sting-16 missile, built by UAE defence conglomerate EDGE, at Idex 2021. About 15 per cent of the 1,000 companies represented at event are Emirati. Victor Besa / The National

Idex 2021 is the first major in-person exhibition in Abu Dhabi since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. International attendees do not need to quarantine, but must undertake regular PCR tests. Victor Besa / The National

Strict anti-coronavirus measures are in place at Idex 2021, including reminders for visitors to adhere to social distancing. Victor Besa / The National

A robot mops the floor as visitors explore the 35,000 square metres of exhibition space at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Omar Al Matrooshi and Rashed Al Raess hold 9mm pistols made by Austrian manufacturer Glock. About 800 international companies are attending Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Omar Al Matrooshi and Rashed Al Raess examine Glock 9mm pistols at Idex 2021. There are 12 exhibition halls at the event. Victor Besa / The National

Visitors examine sniper rifles made by UAE arms manufacturer Caracal, at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

A close-up view of a 100-kilogram laser/satellite guided bomb at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Organisers expect 70,000 visitors to attend Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Visitors adhere to strict social distancing at Adex 2021, the first major in-person exhibition in Abu Dhabi since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Victor Besa / The National.

A visitor arrives at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National.

Visitors attending Idex 2021 in Abu Dhabi. The biennial event was first held in 1993. Victor Besa / The National

Strict social distancing measures are being implemented at Idex 2021. Victor Besa / The National

Exhibitors at Idex 2021 range from the manufacturers of armoured vehicles to cybersecurity companies. Victor Besa / The National

The total value of deals the UAE is expected to sign this year is likely to be similar to the levels of 2019, organisers have said. Rashed Al Mansoori / Ministry of Presidential Affairs

Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed, Member of Abu Dhabi Executive Council. The UAE Armed Forces awarded Dh5.03 billion in contracts on the first day of Idex, with the lion’s share of the deals going to local companies. Rashed Al Mansoori / Ministry of Presidential Affairs

Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed, Member of Abu Dhabi Executive Council. Participants at this year's Idex are focusing on cyber security, autonomous weapons, and using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence in defence applications and safe-guarding supply chains during the global health crisis. Rashed Al Mansoori / Ministry of Presidential Affairs

Gulf countries are expected to invest in advanced defence technology, local military production and knowledge-transfer partnerships during the Middle East’s largest defence expo in Abu Dhabi this week.

Missile defence systems, drones, counter-unmanned aerial vehicles, cyber security tools and artificial intelligence technology, which have played an important role in modern warfare, will be in demand at the International Defence Exhibition, analysts said.

“It is likely that we will see greater emphasis on naval platforms, unmanned systems and electronic warfare capabilities, as well as continued support, training, maintenance and sustainment contracts,” said Charles Forrester, lead analyst at defence intelligence specialist Janes.

Defence spending by Gulf countries grew by 5.4 per cent to $100 billion last year, up from $94.9bn in 2019, according to the latest report by Janes.

The biennial defence expo, which begins on Sunday and ends on Thursday, will gather top industry players eager to showcase their latest technology.

Idex is also the first major defence event since the Covid-19 outbreak, as companies make the most of face-to-face meetings to revive business.

Mr Forrester said cyber security, autonomous systems, electronic warfare and ground-based air defence systems would continue to be of interest to militaries in the region.

He said the requirements for such technology came from both the threat environment in the region and the changing face of modern military operations.

“The rise in the use of unmanned systems by state and non-state actors means that defending facilities, structures and troops from attack and hostile reconnaissance has increased," said Mr Forrester.

"These threats can be dealt with by electronic warfare technology, as well as kinetic means.”

The Iranian threat

Current geopolitical challenges, which include threats from Iran and its proxies, and a need to protect critical infrastructure such as oil assets will spur the need for such military equipment.

“The continued antagonism by Iranian forces in the region will also drive the need for surveillance sensor systems, and analysing the outputs by these systems, to ensure broader aims of stability," said Mr Forrester.

"Utilising unmanned technology will help to deliver this force multiplier and encourage security.”

With Covid-19 and subdued oil prices tightening budgets, governments have been urged to balance healthcare and defence spending amid the pandemic.

Defence spending in Gulf countries is expected to fall by 9.4 per cent this year, before dropping to $89.4bn in 2022, according to Janes, which expects spending to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

“Governments in the region are planning for only modest revenue increases in 2021, coupled with social and health expenditures and aggressive vaccination campaigns, which clearly requires careful reassessment of defence and security spending,” said Aleksandar Jovovic, principal at Washington consultancy Avascent.

This could translate into delays in acquisitions, slower spending in certain segments and the rationalisation of operations or maintenance spending, he said.

However, the organisers of the event said the value of deals that the UAE is expected to sign during Idex and the Naval Defence and Maritime Security Exhibition, or Navdex, this year is expected to be similar to 2019 levels.

The UAE Armed Forces awarded contracts worth Dh20.5 billion ($5.58bn) to local and international companies during the previous event, organisers said.

AI, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and diversification

Gulf countries, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, seek to leverage advanced technology in the defence sector.

Idex will provide a platform for regional buyers to explore opportunities in AI and Fourth Industrial Revolution technology, cyber security and defence-based research and development.

“Through investment, strategic partnerships and building a strong local capability, the GCC countries have the potential to lure significant investment into key emerging technology areas such as cyber security, drone technology and advanced avionics,” said Ammar Hindash, partner and defence lead at PwC Middle East.

Abu Dhabi's Edge – a defence conglomerate specialised in the development of advanced technology for weapons systems, cyber protection and electronic warfare – previously said it would reveal several new UAVs in early 2021.

Edge said in a tweet that it plans to launch more than 20 products at Idex and exhibit more than 50 core capabilities across its various business clusters.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are developing their military production capabilities to localise procurement and reduce their reliance on foreign suppliers.

The move is intended to diversify economies away from oil, nurture local manufacturing and create more jobs. It will also boost sectors such as maintenance and repair operations where local capabilities exist.

The transfer of technology and knowledge from international partners to local companies will increasingly become part of offset and procurement regulations and be reflected in deals at Idex, said analysts.

“Covid-19 has highlighted the impact that emerging threats can have on global supply chain systems and thus the need to further emphasise and accelerate localisation efforts,” said Mr Hindash.

Gulf countries have long been significant buyers of US weapons and are expected to continue sourcing their military requirements from other countries, said analysts.

More than 900 exhibitors from 59 countries are expected to participate in this year's event, which will have 35 national pavilions.

More than 70,000 local and international visitors are expected, in addition to 110 international delegations.

North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg and Portugal will be participating for the first time.

About 84 per cent of exhibiting companies will be from abroad while 16 per cent will be UAE-based.

“Idex will be the first defence trade show to take place since the pandemic started a year ago, so all eyes will be at the show that could encourage other trade show organisers to resume activities,” said Riad Kahwaji, chief executive of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.