Dubai's aviation sector to account for 32% of GDP and one in four jobs by 2030

Construction of Al Maktoum International Airport's new terminal will contribute 1% to Dubai's GDP and generate 132,000 jobs in 2030

Emirates Group's contribution to Dubai’s economy is forecast to grow to Dh144 billion, or 24 per cent of Dubai’s forecast GDP, by 2030. Photo: Dubai Airports

Dubai's aviation sector is forecast to account for 32 per cent of the emirate's economy and account for one in four jobs in 2030, according to a study by Oxford Economics, commissioned by Emirates airline and Dubai Airports.

The aviation sector will contribute Dh196 billion ($53.36 billion) to Dubai’s projected GDP and support 816,000 jobs in 2030, based on industry financial and passenger projections, according to the report released on Thursday.

This forecast is up from an estimated Dh137 billion, or 27 per cent, contribution to GDP in 2023, when the sector supported 631,000 jobs.

Construction of the new passenger terminal at Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) is expected to contribute Dh6.1 billion to Dubai's economy in 2030, equivalent to one per cent of its forecast GDP, and to create 132,000 jobs, the report said.

“Our ambitious plans for Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International Airport, and our ongoing investments to expand capacity at Dubai International, will unlock further economic opportunities by supporting the projected demand for air transport,” Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed, chairman and chief executive of Emirates airline and group, said.

“Our growth plans will generate even more skilled jobs, and also help drive innovation as we work with leading technology partners to develop future solutions to enhance travel experiences and make operations more efficient and secure.”

Aviation is a key pillar in Dubai's economy. Dubai International Airport (DXB), which does not have a domestic market, handled 86.9 million passengers in 2023, a 31.7 per cent increase on the previous year. DXB has been the world's busiest international hub for passengers for 10 consecutive years.

Dubai Airports has raised its annual forecast for the emirate's main hub to 93 million passengers in 2024, despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Dubai is a major trade, tourism and business centre in the Middle East, attracting a record 17.1 million international overnight visitors in 2023, according to the Department of Economy and Tourism. The emirate has attracted foreign expats to the city with more flexible visa schemes, infrastructure spending and its economic diversification programme.

Emirates' 39th anniversary

Emirates Group's total contribution to Dubai's economy last year was Dh98 billion, or a whopping 19 per cent of Dubai’s GDP. The group, which includes the airline and aviation services company Dnata, supported 413,000 jobs, equivalent to one in every eight jobs in Dubai.

Emirates Group's contribution to Dubai’s economy is forecast to grow to Dh144 billion, or 24 per cent of Dubai’s forecast GDP in 2030, according to the report.

The rest of Dubai's aviation sector is expected to contribute the remaining eight per cent. The sector includes Dubai Airports, flydubai, Dubai Duty Free, Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP), Dubai Police, Dubai Customs, Dubai Immigration, Dubai Air Navigation Services, Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, the General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs (GDRFA) and Dubai Aviation City Corporation.

Emirates Group is expected to support 554,000 jobs, or one in six jobs, across Dubai in 2030.

“These figures don’t even account for the massive new Al Maktoum International airport, which will be the world’s largest when complete, and Emirates’ new home from the mid-2030s onwards,” airline president Tim Clark said.

The Dubai government is proceeding with a $35 billion expansion of its second hub, Al Maktoum International Airport, in anticipation of a surge in visitors over the next decade. That airport now has a capacity of 32.5 million passengers, handling mainly cargo and some low-cost airlines.

The new passenger terminal, which is scheduled for completion in 10 years, will provide more room for Emirates' growth as it takes deliveries of new wide-body aircraft and carries more passengers.

“The new airfield and supporting aviation infrastructure around Dubai World Central will unlock capacity for the Emirates Group’s continued growth trajectory,” Mr Clark said. “Crucially, it will enable us to meet travel demand to Dubai and across our network, and power the next phase of Dubai’s growth.”

The report comes a day ahead of Emirates marking the 39th anniversary of its first flight on October 25,1985 when it began operations with just two wet-leased aircraft and seed capital of $10 million.

Emirates' “meteoric rise is no accident” and stems from a “brilliant master plan” by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, according to airline president Tim Clark.

“His marching orders to the small team tasked with setting up the airline back in 1985 were crystal clear – look good, be good, stand on your own feet, and don’t expect protection or subsidies. The Emirates management team has always kept those words close to our hearts,” Mr Clark said.

The airline has bolstered Dubai's global connectivity and the emirate's supportive aviation policies have enabled the carrier to grow to new heights, delivering billions in dividends to its government owner and billions more in total economic contribution to Dubai.

“Emirates won global attention and brought the world to Dubai by being the best there is. In turn, Dubai’s successful economic diversification initiatives and growth drove international visitation and increased demand for Emirates’ services,” Mr Clark said.

“In short, Emirates and Dubai propel each other to greater heights.”

Dubai grasped early on that a thriving aviation sector is essential for healthy economies and requires the right policies and private-public sector co-operation to thrive, the industry veteran said.

“I wish more cities would emulate Dubai in giving aviation the recognition and support it deserves. It’s important to note that Dubai’s aviation success isn’t just a story for the city,” Mr Clark said.

“Our aviation sector has helped drive innovation through our unique business models that demand new types of aircraft, and the latest products, technologies, and services.

“We’ve helped bring and build aviation expertise in the region which has led to a blossoming aviation scene in other markets around us.”

Tourism spending

The report also examined the aviation sector's impact on tourist arrivals into Dubai, and how much visitors spend during their stay in the city.

In 2023, international visitors flying to Dubai spent an estimated Dh66 billion. The average visitor stayed 3.8 nights at Dubai’s hotels and spent Dh4,300 during their visit on hotels, restaurants, recreational activities, and retail, according to Dubai government data.

“Aviation-facilitated tourism stimulates further economic activity as the tourism industries purchase goods and services from their Dubai-based suppliers. Meanwhile wage-funded consumption by the tourism industries’ employees and those working in their supply chains stimulates economic activity in the consumer economy,” the report said.

In 2023, “aviation-facilitated” tourism spending is estimated to have had an economic contribution of Dh43 billion, or 8.5 per cent of Dubai’s GDP, supporting 329,000 jobs, the Oxford Economics report said.

More than half of this, Dh23 billion, was generated by tourists flying to Dubai with Emirates.

Tourism to Dubai is projected to grow significantly over the next six years, with aviation-facilitated tourism spending expected to contribute Dh63 billion to the economy, equivalent to 10 per cent of Dubai’s projected GDP, as well as one in eight Dubai jobs, in 2030, the report said.