Global air traffic to double in 20 years amid strong demand from Asia-Pacific

Airbus expects the worldwide fleet to more than double over the next two decades to 48,230 planes

A Cebu Air Airbus A319 aircraft in Manila. Airbus says Asia-Pacific will require about 23.2 per cent of the new aircraft. Reuters

Global air traffic is expected to more than double in the next 20 years, recovering from the pandemic-induced downturn and as economies expand, with significant demand coming from the Asia-Pacific region, Airbus has said.

The European plane maker predicts air traffic to increase by nearly 8 per cent annually until 2027 as the industry quickly recovers from Covid-related losses, before stabilising at a growth rate of 3.6 per cent per year until 2043, it said in its annual report on Monday.

Airbus expects the world will have 48,230 planes by 2043, compared with 24,240 at the beginning of this year. Nearly 45 per cent of all new deliveries will be to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, the plane maker said in its latest 2024 Global Market Forecast.

“Over the last four years, air transportation has again proved its resilience through the deepest and longest crisis in its history. Now, traffic and airline operations are broadly back to pre-Covid levels or higher with a few exceptions,” Airbus said.

"As Covid is behind us, traffic is reconnecting with previous trends. People want and need to fly."

Growth will be driven by an increase in global GDP that is expected to jump more than 2.6 per cent from 2023 to 2043.

Other factors driving air traffic growth include expanding populations, a growing number of middle-class, first-time fliers, increasing trade, improved infrastructure and traffic stimulation from airlines offering new affordable flights, Airbus said in its report.

The report comes as the company’s long-distance A321XLR is expected to receive certification in the coming weeks.

"We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led particularly by India and China," Reuters quoted Bob Lange, head of market analysis and forecasts at Airbus, as saying.

"Domestic China [traffic] will overtake the US," he added.

Where is the growth coming from?

Airbus forecast a demand for more than 42,430 new aircraft during the 2024-2043 period.

The new planes will include passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with more than 10 tonnes' payload, of which 33,510 will be single-aisle and 8,920 will be wide-bodies.

More than 45 per cent of demand (19,510) is coming from the Asia-Pacific and China markets, Airbus, which is based in Toulouse, France, said in its report.

Asia-Pacific (excluding China) will require about 23.2 per cent (9,990) of the new aircraft, while China will demand approximately 23.1 per cent (9.520).

This will be followed by Europe and the CIS region (8,050), North America (7,100), Latin America (2,570), the Middle East (3,740) and Africa (1,460).

The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India, is anticipated to be the "largest market for new aircraft", driven by significant pent-up demand for air travel and economic growth, said Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of consultants BAA & Partners.

The region’s expanding middle class and increasing urbanisation are major factors contributing to this demand, he explained.

“Asia-Pacific is set to experience robust growth, with many countries in the region … especially in South East Asia right now … investing heavily in expanding their aviation infrastructure to meet the rising demand,” Mr Bauer told The National.

Airlines in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, are also expected to be among the biggest buyers. Additionally, airlines in North America and Europe will also be significant buyers, mainly driven by the need to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft with new, more sustainable models, Mr Bauer said.

Some of the key unserved routes in Africa could potentially boost air travel. They could provide greater connectivity for travellers, drive economic growth in local economies and provide a significant boost in revenue for airlines, Airbus said in a separate report.

Some of the top unserved routes identified in the Airbus analysis are concentrated in cities such as Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar and Douala.

Emphasis on fuel efficiency

New aircraft deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in the coming years, Airbus said.

Currently, nearly 30 per cent of the world’s in-service aircraft fleet are of the latest generation while the remaining are previous generation.

“Short-term priority for decarbonising the sector includes to replace the remaining 70 per cent,” Airbus said.

The new planes will also further reduce fuel burn per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK), which has already halved since 1990, contributing to sustainability goals and efficiency improvements.

RPK is one of the key metrics used in the aviation industry to measure the volume of passenger traffic, defined as the number of kilometres travelled by paying passengers.

Airbus said its decarbonisation efforts include introducing more efficient ways to operate aircraft, using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and future technology such as hydrogen and carbon-capture techniques.

Fleet replacement could yield about 25 per cent carbon dioxide savings across the entire Airbus fleet, the company said.

SAF, alternative fuels made from renewable sources that are used to power aircraft, is crucial for the global aviation industry to reach its net-zero goal by 2050. The aviation sector is responsible for about 2 per cent of global carbon-dioxide emissions.

However, its adoption is still in the early stages due to small-scale production and its higher cost than conventional fuel.

All Airbus aircraft are compatible with up to 50 per cent SAF blends, requiring no modifications. Up to 100 per cent capability is targeted by end of decade, the company said in the report.

It also aims to add a hydrogen-powered aircraft to the market by 2035.