A picture of British economist Angus Deaton is flashed on the screen during the announcement of the winner 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics. Maja Suslin / TT News Agency / Reuters
A picture of British economist Angus Deaton is flashed on the screen during the announcement of the winner 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics. Maja Suslin / TT News Agency / Reuters

Angus Deaton wins Nobel Prize in Economics



Angus Deaton of Princeton University was awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said yesterday.

When the academy called from Stockholm, “I was pretty sleepy … I was delighted,” Mr Deaton said. “Like many economists, I knew this was a possibility, and was delighted to hear.”

The 69-year-old’s research has focused on health in both rich and poor countries, as well as on measuring poverty in India and around the world, according to his website.

Fans were quick to applaud the choice. “Angus Deaton is the Obi-Wan Kenobi of economics,” Amitabh Chandra of Harvard University said in a tweet.

Born in Scotland, although now also a citizen of the United States, Mr Deaton obtained his PhD from the University of Cambridge. His 2013 book The Great Escape maps the origins of inequality and its fallout spanning 250 years of economic history.

“To design economic policy that promotes welfare and reduces poverty, we must first understand individual consumption choices,” the academy said. “More than anyone else, Angus Deaton has enhanced this understanding. By linking detailed individual choices and aggregate outcomes, his research has helped transform the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and development economics.”

Mr Deaton’s early research has helped to develop a greater understanding of consumer spending patterns and how people adapt their consumption to their incomes. His more recent focus on household surveys has helped to change development economics from a theoretical field based on aggregate data to an empirical field based on detailed individual data, according to the academy.

The recognition the prize carries has helped previous winners bring their economic theories closer to policymaking.

Past laureates include Milton Friedman, James Tobin, Paul Krugman and Friedrich August von Hayek. Last year’s award went to the Frenchman Jean Tirole of the University of Toulouse for his work on how governments can regulate industries from banking to telecommunications.

Annual prizes for achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, peace and literature were established in the will of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish inventor of dynamite, who died in 1896. The prize in economic sciences was added by Sweden’s central bank in 1968. The total amount for each of the 2015 prizes is 8 million kronor (Dh3.6m).

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”