A lesson in soccernomics during Euro 2012

Seldom has a game of football assumed such geo-financial significance. When Greece take on Germany in the quarter final of the Euro 2012 championship this Friday, two economic philosophies will be pitted against each other, not just two football teams.

It's German discipline versus Greek laissez-faire, austerity northern Europe versus the spendthrift south, the tax-paying core versus the (ahem) tax-minimising periphery. You wouldn't be surprised to see John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek named among the substitutes.

Not that football in this case has reflected the economic debate. Greece have got through the group stages not by playing an extravagant, devil-may-care game, but by relying on the sturdy, conservative style that won them the European championship in 2004. A very monetarist approach.

Germany, as usual, have been Germany: ruthless efficiency, technical mastery and occasional flashes of pure skill (mainly from striker Mario Gomez). Almost Keynsian in its technique.

Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist, weighed into the soccernomics debate this week in his weekly newsletter. The man who invented the Bric category of investment analysis for the dynamic economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China has spent the past five Fifa World Cups honing a theory that links economics and football prowess.

Perhaps best summarized as "small is beautiful, but big is best", Mr O'Neill's theory stipulates that big economies produce better football teams. So Germany, Brazil, France, and Italy, for example, have all done well in international competition over the years, as well as in global economics (at least, for the last two, until 2008).

Mr O'Neill admits it is a "rather simplistic approach," and of course it should imply that the other Brics, Russia, India and China are the footballing powers of the future. There's no sign of that, and Russia's disappointment in not moving beyond the Euro group stages maybe underlines the suspicions of some that the country is as unsuited to Bric-hood as it is to international football.

Spain is a big hole in Mr O'Neill's theory. While the economy and financial system grind to a halt, the country's football team goes from strength to strength, world and European champions and hot-favourites to retain the Euro title.

But he has a reply for that. Spain is valued at 70 per cent below its true worth, and could become the "s" in Brics if the economy can recover to match the performance of the football team.

Mr O'Neill sees a final of apocalyptic proportions: "Germany versus Spain, with the future of the Euro at stake."

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By the time you have read this column, I will be much the wiser on the subject of soccernomics, because I will have had the benefit of "an evening with Paul Gascoigne".

For anybody who hasn't heard of him, "Gazza" is one of the legends of the game, especially for my team Tottenham Hotspur in the 1990s. Which Spurs fan will ever forget the free kick in the FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal in 1991? Just thinking about it now brings tears of joy.

Gazza is in Dubai to do a few promotional things, of which the main event is a night at Long's Bar in the Rotana Towers hotel on Sheikh Zayed Road. Coinciding with the crucial game between England and Ukraine at the Euros, it promises to be a unique insight into the mind of a footballing genius.

I'm sure Gazza will talk at length on the Hayek/Keynes debate, and the paradox of the Spanish bond/football yield gap.

Or maybe he'll just get stuck into the 'British cuisine' - pie and chips - on offer and watch the game.