Riots and reputations: Will the violent unrest in Britain affect investment?

Just as the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, began a visit to the US and Canada on August 5, pressing the flesh on Wall Street, far-right rioters in towns across England and Northern Ireland were reaching for bricks to throw at police and attacking hotels thought to be housing immigrants and asylum seekers. Ms Reeves spoke of the need to restore “economic stability so we can attract the investment needed to create good jobs, boost wages and improve opportunity across Britain”, which is why she was “breaking down barriers at home and banging the drum for Britain abroad”. But much of the breaking at home was happening to shop windows on high streets , while rioters set fire to hotels and police vehicles . “The world is watching the images and the longer the unrest continues, the greater the economic impact will be,” said Alex Veitch, director of policy at the British Chambers of Commerce. Nearly 500 people have been arrested during the unrest, which started in Southport, near Liverpool, after the suspect in the killing of three children was falsely identified on social media as being asylum seeker and a Muslim. More than 140 people have been charged and several have been jailed. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the country's criminal justice system would continue "working speedily" to convict those who participated in the riots and he vowed to maintain efforts to halt further violence from the far right. "It's important that we don't let up here," Mr Starmer said during a visit to a mosque in Solihull, south-east of Birmingham. The government put 6,000 specialist police on standby at potential flashpoints, while one of the UK's most senior police officers, Chief Constable Gavin Stephens, warned those "intent on violence and destruction have not gone away". Shops and businesses in areas hit by rioting are now calculating the cost of the damage to their premises and stock. Supermarket chains Sainsbury's and Iceland were targeted, as well as fast food outlet Greggs and the optician Specsavers, in a wave of looting that accompanied attacks on mosques and hotels where asylum seekers were thought to be staying. The full cost to British businesses will take some time to come through, but total insurance claims are expected to be in the tens of millions. Cleveland Police, in the north-east of England, estimated the riots had cost the region £300,000 ($382,965), without specifying how it was broken down. “Individuals, homeowners and businesses affected by the recent unrest will understandably be incredibly worried and distressed,” said a representative for the Association of British Insurers (ABI). “Physical damage to homes or businesses is covered as standard by most household and business insurance policies. Most comprehensive motor insurance also includes cover for damage to your car.” The ABI pointed out that most commercial insurance policies will cover businesses for damage to the premises, including the interruption to business operations, and some will cover loss of trade in the aftermath of unrest, even if no physical damage has occurred. That is an important point, underlined by the British Retail Consortium, which said shoppers stayed away from many of Britain's high streets during the unrest. “What we don't know really yet is the significance of the business impact,” the consortium's chief executive, Helen Dickinson, told the BBC. The longer consumers stay away from city centres for fear of being caught up in unrest, the more local communities suffer, said Mr Veitch. “Businesses are at the heart of local communities, helping to develop a sense of pride in different areas. If people feel unsafe to shop or spend time in the local high streets that will have an impact on our local economies,” he said. In several areas on August 7 afternoon, including Finchley and Walthamstow in London, businesses boarded up their windows in anticipation of unrest. In the event, anti-racist demonstrations sprang up across the UK during that evening and as far-right protesters mostly stayed away, the night passed with relatively little trouble. Nonetheless, the immediate financial cost of the damage caused in the violent scenes over the past week is not expected to approach anything like the total from the 2011 riots. Thirteen years ago looters rampaged through shopping streets in 22 of the 32 London boroughs, as well as Gloucester, Liverpool, Manchester, Nottingham and Birmingham, where three Muslim men were killed as they tried to protect their shop. By the time it was over, 3,000 people had been arrested and 2,000 faced charges, while the total cost was put at more than £400 million. One reason the cost of the latest wave of unrest is predicted to be far lower is because looting has only been sporadic. In 2011, opportunistic theft was much more widespread and looting was often found to be the primary motivator of rioters. In response to the past week's unrest, Martin McTague, chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, said local authorities, insurance companies and politicians all needed to be prepared to help damaged businesses in riot-affected communities “rebuild, recover and get back on their feet”. “Local small business success rests on local support, in welcoming environments where people want to be. The images of the last few days are the opposite and it must stop,” he added. One local businessman in Belfast, Northern Ireland, has been counting the cost of the damage to his shop, which came under attack from rioters. Ali Wartty, a 52-year-old Iraqi who has lived in the UK for 22 years, told The National he opened the Middle East Market at the beginning of the year after investing £200,000. “They attacked the shop and the staff and began beating them,” he said of the rioters. “One of the staff was injured and one of our customers was injured … so we’ve decided to close the shop.” But what will be harder to quantify is the reputational damage to Britain, both as a place to visit and a destination for investment capital. It is, of course, peak summer tourist season in the UK, and while most of the violent protests took place far from Britain's main visitor attractions (with the possible exception of Whitehall in London), there are concerns that the image of the country has been dented. “Demand for travel to Britain remains strong and we continue to welcome many millions of visitors from all over the world, including from the Gulf,” Patricia Yates, chief executive of VisitBritain, told The National . “We are working closely with our overseas teams to monitor travel sentiment and to ensure our international travel trade partners have the latest factual information available, as necessary. “Looking domestically, it’s peak summer and people were already booking domestic breaks very late this year due to weather and cost of living concerns. “We’ve heard anecdotally that some destinations have seen reduced footfall from domestic holidaymakers and day-trippers in recent days, and coach operators have seen some cancellations, highlighting the ongoing challenges for the industry in the critical holiday season.” Britain's image as a tourist destination took a battering during the week when several countries including the UAE, Australia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Kenya, India, Hong Kong and Malaysia all advised their citizens to exercise caution and stay away from the riot areas. The images of rioters looting shops, launching assaults on hotels and setting fire to police cars presented a less than rosy picture of the UK. But the comments about an “inevitable” civil war by Elon Musk were largely shrugged off by the investment community and analysts made the point that the UK is not alone in having bouts of urban unrest in recent years. “I doubt it will dent the UK's appeal as a destination for international investment,” Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK Management, told The National . “All countries go through periods of unrest (France and the US come to mind recently) and as long as this doesn’t escalate further, international investors are unlikely to take much notice. “The better outlook for the UK economy and the prospect of more cuts in interest rates are likely to have a much bigger impact.” Indeed, during her trip to New York, Ms Reeves was pushing the message that “Britain is open for business” and courting global investors to sign up to the International Investment Summit in the UK in mid-October. According to the UK Treasury, the chief executives of BNY Mellon, Blackstone and CyrusOne have all agreed to attend the summit. Ms Reeves said as more global investors accept invitations to the event, Britain's credibility as the investment destination of choice will grow. “They recognise we have taken some difficult decisions to fix the foundations of our economy and set us on a path to sustained economic growth as the government's number one mission – it is only by doing so that we can capitalise on Britain's immense investment potential,” she said. Experts say the riots will have little if any impact on actual investment decisions, even though the television pictures show the negative side of British society and underscore the reality that some former industrial towns in Britain continue to struggle economically. “It is one of those things that if you were an investor and already planning to invest in the UK, then you would probably look through it and regard the riots as a short-term phenomenon,” Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital, told The National . “But if you were an undecided investor, or somebody Ms Reeves was trying to convince, then at the margin it is probably a negative and makes her task a little more difficult. “But even then, it is likely to be a marginal factor as disturbances like this don't tend to last that long,” he added.

Riots and reputations: Will the violent unrest in Britain affect investment?

Experts gauge the impact of violent far-right protests on international investors, just as the UK's new government is touting for business