It's almost 10 years since comic book superheroes became the saviours of the summer blockbuster. Sure, renditions of Batman and Superman had been luring moviegoers for decades, but it was the success of Bryan Singer's spandex-free X-Men in 2000 that ushered in the boom years for the screen superhero. Since then, almost every major masked avenger has been given a shot at conquering the silver screen.
While the likes of Spider-Man and a retooled Batman succeeded at sparking billion-dollar franchises, countless other outings have already been forgotten (Catwoman or The Punisher, anyone?). But despite many of the best-known characters having already been plundered for the screen, the largest comics publisher, Marvel, has announced plans to produce as many as four superhero films a year. This will include a raft of lower-budget offerings ($20-40 million, or Dh73-147m), potentially focusing on more obscure characters such as Dr Strange or Dazzler.
But while optimistic studio executives are banking on a flood of capes and tights to prop up future box office returns, some are predicting that cinema's Age of the Superhero might already be coming to an end. The recently released movie Kick-Ass gained prominence for attempting to turn the genre on its head. It showed what might happen if everyday characters with no superpowers dressed up in colourful costumes and tried to fight crime.
Although the film was as much of a tribute to the world of comics as it was a send-up, parody often signals that a movement is approaching the end of its natural life. "Stripping not only the 'heroes' but also the 'super' from the genre feels, to me, as if culture is finally tiring of this latest spate of superhero worship ... or just boredom with a formula that's become overfamiliar by now," wrote Graeme McMillan, on the science fiction website io9.
"After seeing a genre's weak points exposed, will audiences really be excited to watch capes and costumes save the world non-stop for summers to come?" he added. It's easy to see how superheroes became so popular with studios and audiences in the first place. Some characters (such as Superman) have existed for more than 70 years and come with established fan bases that are worth more in potential ticket sales than any marketing campaign could muster. Thanks to the revolution in special effects that digital technology has brought, it's now possible to realise the many characters' superpowers on screen like never before. It's also easy to create sequels for successful film outings when the original comics hold decades of pre-established stories, ready to be mined.
But in recent weeks there have been further signs that superhero movies may need putting out to pasture. The Green Hornet, starring Seth Rogen and directed by Michel Gondry, has been pushed back from a planned Christmas release, into the "dumping ground" of January 2011. There have also been reports of massive reshoots on the film. Meanwhile, Guy Ritchie's planned movie of DC Comics' alien mercenary Lobo has been put on hold indefinitely, and two further comic book adaptations (although not strictly superhero stories), The Losers and Jonah Hex, both appear destined for lacklustre box office performances.
"I'm actually kind of scared that the market will become saturated with superheroes and comic book stuff and then swing the other way," says the comic book artist Tommy Lee Edwards, who has also worked as an artistic consultant on a number of superhero films, including Batman Begins and Superman Returns. "If that happens, people like me will have a tough time." Hollywood's slate of upcoming superhero movies offers few glimmers of hope for the genre's future. Next year Spider-Man will be rebooted after the sacking of the lead actor Tobey Maguire and the director Sam Raimi, who delivered three wildly successful big-screen outings for the character. Also due for a 2011 release are movies for Thor and Captain America, two classic Marvel characters that are likely to prove particularly challenging to update for modern audiences.
These outings are intended to set up an Avengers movie the following year. In what promises to be a kind of Harlem-Globetrotters-of-superheroes, Thor and Captain America will team up with the already established characters Iron Man, the Incredible Hulk and a host of others. While a superhero love-in such as this may be unmissable for diehard comics fans, many others may be put off by a film so heavily reliant on pre-existing characters battling for screen time. And even if the movie succeeds in combining these separate threads into a coherent narrative, the four-year build-up (starting with a scene tacked on to 2008's Iron Man, in which Samuel L Jackson attempts to recruit Robert Downey Jr for a secret project) will be enough to leave almost anyone blinded by cynicism.
But not all signs point towards an upcoming superhero meltdown. The recently released Iron Man 2 raked in the fifth-highest opening weekend gross in North American box office history ($128 million), just shy of the current record holder The Dark Knight and the second place Spider-Man 3. What's more, the star-studded action movie pulverised the deconstructionist take on the genre offered by Kick-Ass, which took just $19 million during its opening weekend in North America. If the film really is destined to tear up the superhero rule book, it seems audiences are yet to be convinced.
Masked adventurers have also been making their mark on television drama over the past decade. Although the big-budget series Smallville and Heroes now look set to be coming to an end, it seems US network executives still have faith in the genre, with the new shows The Cape and No Ordinary Family debuting later this year. It was also revealed last week that the Kuwaiti superhero comic The 99, about ordinary people with superhuman powers, influenced by messages from the Quran, will air on the US cable channel The Hub in October.
It's also worth noting that Kick-Ass was not the first movie to add greater realism the superhero mythos. Films such as Mystery Men, Unbreakable, The Specials, The Incredibles and last year's Watchmen all asked: "What if superheroes were just like us?" "Deconstruction and parody don't always spell doom for a genre; often they revitalise them," says Rich Johnson, the editor of the comics blog BleedingCool.com. "It shows you what's important about a genre or an idea and focuses your mind on the other possible directions it can go in."
The best known attempt at dissecting superhero lore remains the graphic novel Watchmen, created in 1986 by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons. Its characters included a second-generation superhero forced into the profession unwillingly by her mother and a host of masked vigilantes who were (perhaps unsurprisingly) motived more by sadism than altruism. "As a comic, Watchmen was the ultimate in superhero deconstruction. But it certainly didn't destroy comic books. In fact it did the opposite," says Johnson. "You can certainly see the influence of deconstruction on the Iron Man film; it knows the tropes it's working with and has fun with them."
Not only does Iron Man's protagonist, Tony Stark, make no attempt to keep his crime-fighting alter ego secret, but he is often more concerned with money and fast living than the greater good. Perhaps the superhero's best chance of avoiding overexposure will not be reinvention, but misdirection. What if a superhero film could convince an audience that it's something else entirely? "You have to ask: At what point will people stop thinking about superheroes as a genre?" says Johnson. "Is The Incredible Hulk a superhero movie or a monster movie? Is Doctor Strange a superhero movie or a magic movie? Is Ant Man a superhero movie or a science fiction/secret agent movie? If these characters are going to survive, they will need to merge with existing movie genres, because nobody is going to want to see a superhero movie every week."
So if masked avengers are to avoid overkill and maintain their dominance at the box office, it seems they will need one thing more than any other: a decent disguise.