Music piracy is now unstoppable. This is the bleak opinion expressed by Francis Keeling - the vice president, digital of the world's largest music company, Universal - at a music conference in the British seaside town of Brighton earlier this month. Keeling made the claim in the wake of a controversial law - the UK Digital Economy Act - being passed in April. The act, which could strip serial offenders of their right to use the internet, has been fully backed by the music company.
Filesharing has been big news since the late 1990s, when the popularity of MP3 files began to grow rapidly. And while filesharing itself is not - nor has ever been - illegal, applications such as Napster and BitTorrent allowed users to share copyrighted material with one another. This, understandably, ruffled the feathers of groups such as the Recording Industry (RIAA) and the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA).
But when Napster's illegal incarnation was shut down in 2001, dozens of other like-minded networks cropped up in its place, including LimeWire, Kazaa, The Pirate Bay. In a study conducted in 2008 by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI), it was discovered that over 40 billion files were shared illegally worldwide by 95 per cent of the world's filesharing community. By way of comparison, the biggest-selling album of all time (Thriller by Michael Jackson) has sold 110 million records. It's easy to see why the music industry is concerned.
Francis McDonald, the drummer for the Scottish band Teenage Fanclub, thinks illegal downloading has both negative and positive consequences: "Asking bloggers to remove MP3 downloads can turn supporters and tastemakers against you, making you annoy the very people you want on your side. But, some illegal downloaders may support a band by buying concert tickets or merchandise that cannot be loaded onto an iPod."
Teenage Fanclub gave away their new single, Baby Lee. McDonald says that it seems to have helped whip up some excitement ahead of the release of the band's new album and tour. "I can't stop fans coming by music without buying it. Whether we like it or not, illegal downloading is not going to go away," he adds. Other musicians have taken a rather more stern view. Metallica's drummer, Lars Ulrich, successfully sued Napster in 2000. Speaking before the Senate Judiciary Committee on behalf of the band, Ulrich may have won his battle in court, but lost many a fan in the process.
The argument as to whether or not music should be downloaded for free has divided music industry insiders for years. The original MySpace starlet Lily Allen threatened to quit the business last year when a barrage of abuse came her way after her very public scolding of illegal downloaders. The Featured Artists' Coalition criticised Allen's draconian views, and the Columbian star Shakira made a point of publicly denouncing the singer.
Regardless of the intellectual arguments, illegal still means illegal. In 2009 four administrators for The Pirate Bay (the 99th most popular website in the world) were taken to court by the IFPI. The court case was a victory for the music industry, which claims that illegal downloads cost them billions of pounds in revenue each year. Each of the four men on trial was sentenced to jail and to pay back 30 million Swedish krona (Dh14.3 million) to several music companies. Just over a month after the court case, the website was back to business as normal, and now hosts close to 25 million unique users. The four defendants have since lodged an appeal which is due to take place in court later this year.
So what does the future hold for music downloads? Apple's iTunes service, which was launched in 2001, has had over 10 billion songs downloaded from its servers - making it the largest online music store in the world. However, this is still a drop in the ocean compared to illegal download figures. The introduction of Spotify less than two years ago seems to have bridged the gap somewhat, by allowing people to listen to music for free, so long as they endure the occasional ad between songs. With a back catalogue of approximately eight million tracks, users can search for - and listen to - whatever they want without actually downloading anything. Users can pay £4.99 per month for unlimited use with no ads or £9.99 for premium access, which allows downloads. However, it is currently only available in the Sweden, Spain, Norway, Finland, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
The hope of the music industry must be that as more legal options of buying and listening to music online emerge, then illegal downloading will become less prevalent. As Keeling went on to say: "Can we make piracy socially unacceptable? Absolutely, and that has to be our ambition around the world."