"A reconstruction of the international system is the ultimate challenge to statesmanship in our time," writes Henry Kissinger in his latest book, World Order [Amazon.com; Amazon.co.uk], and the 91-year-old former American national security adviser and secretary of state spends most of the book's 400-plus pages counselling a course of old-school realpolitik.
Largely insipid and uninspired, World Order nevertheless contributes to – and given both the status and sheer size of Kissinger's readership, will likely enlarge – a crucial debate facing us all: what to do in the face of an onslaught of international crises?
In short, World Order calls for states – that is, sovereign countries – to step up and insist on taking pride of place in the international system. Order requires the most important of these sovereign countries to then arrange themselves in, and commit to, a balance of power.
The first requirement, Kissinger argues, is an updated and revitalised “Westphalian order”. The 1648 Peace of Westphalia ended decades of war in Europe and produced what we think of today as the sovereign state. In a Westphalian system, Kissinger says, countries must abide certain principles: non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries, the inviolability of borders, sovereignty and what he curiously calls the “encouragements of international law”.
But to get powerful countries to submit to a balance of power they must be convinced the proposed balance – the relative shares of territory and spheres of influence, for example – is legitimate. Crafting a legitimate balance is therefore the great challenge. But once there’s buy-in, the temptation for a country to strike out on its own, conquer territory or make war on other powers takes on too big a risk, promises too little pay-off and is outweighed by the benefits of maintaining the balance. Restraint and relative peace therefore come to govern relations between nations and the balance holds the laws of the jungle at bay.
In calling for an update and “modernisation” of a Westphalian order, Kissinger reminds us this has been accomplished before – the Congress of Vienna, concluded in 1815 following the upheavals of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, kept a relative peace, Kissinger writes, for almost 60 years.
The unification of Germany in 1871 rattled the foundations of the arrangement and undermined its legitimacy. What was once balanced soon began to lurch. Increased power contests and what Kissinger calls “routinised confrontation” and dysfunction led ultimately to cataclysm: the First World War, the Versailles peace treaty, the rise of Hitler and the Second World War.
These disasters were not inevitable, Kissinger argues, but “arose from a series of miscalculations made by serious leaders who did not understand the consequences of their planning … the final maelstrom triggered by a terrorist attack …” Here, Kissinger no doubt knew his choice of words would, and likely should, give pause to readers today.
In essence, World Order is a call to update and recreate the earlier success of the Congress of Vienna. In making the Congress the exemplar of a refined Westphalian model of sovereign states set up in a balance of power, Kissinger returns to the roots of his very first book, published almost six decades ago, in 1957. A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812-1822 is a study of the Congress of Vienna based on his Harvard doctoral dissertation.
Perhaps it's not surprising then, that despite being right up to date, World Order reads like a relic. The chapter on "Foreign Policy in the Digital Era", for example, clearly illustrates the quite understandable limitations of the book's nonagenarian author.
But whether old-school or out-of-touch, Kissinger may not mind having the work called dated. Realpolitik belongs to a much broader tradition called “political realism” of which a central tenet, as articulated by Hans Morgenthau, a godfather of 20th-century American realism (and both a friend and critic of Kissinger), reads: “Human nature, in which the laws of politics have their roots, has not changed since the classical philosophies of China, India and Greece endeavoured to discover these laws. Hence, novelty is not necessarily a virtue in political theory, nor is old age a defect …”
Often thought stark and amoral, political realism is a rich tradition. It traces its roots to the Athenian general and historian Thucydides and the approach he took to write his history of the Peloponnesian War. Morgenthau, for example, was a devoted disciple of the 19th-century philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche. Twentieth-century realism emerged as a reaction to the “wishful thinking” of the idealist statesmen who drafted the Treaty of Versailles, set up the League of Nations and, in their hopes of preventing international bad behaviour with little more than public condemnation, opened the road to Hitler’s rise.
But Kissinger's "realism" in World Order, though applied to lots of information, reveals little of the depth of this rich tradition. His narrative of power relations is often breathless and superficial; his descriptions of diplomacy are oddly abstract and mechanistic; the tone of the book is rarely deeper than that of advertising copy or a brochure. And coming full-circle back to his earliest writings, World Order reads like the capstone chapter of Kissinger's intellectual autobiography; unfortunately it suffers the defects common to most political memoirs. Past practitioners can rarely help sounding like apologists.
As such, readers interested in the Middle East may find, as I did, the relevant sections of World Order to suffer from dissimulation and equivocation. For example, the Cold War contest in the Middle East is described primarily as a series of bouts between local powers; corresponding superpower policy towards the Middle East is almost entirely passive and reactive. Kissinger shows a bias in his characterisation of the Sunni-Shia divide, suggestive of a difference between the reasonable and the hysterical: "When Ali, eventually coming to power as the fourth caliph, was challenged by rebellion and murdered by a mob, the Sunnis treated the central task as the restoration of order in Islam and backed the faction that re-established stability. Shias decried the new authorities as illegitimate usurpers and lionised the martyrs who had died in resistance. These general attitudes would prevail for centuries."
Kissinger stresses the government and sovereignty of (Sunni) Saudi Arabia be protected. The kingdom is the “central eventual prize” of both Sunni and Shia jihadists; its fall would jeopardise the international system. Western policymakers must be forgiving and understanding of Saudi Arabia’s religious fundamentalism and lack of democracy and the kingdom must be bolstered against domestic upheaval, Kissinger argues. Especially, Saudi Arabia must be supported in its rivalry with (Shia) Iran, a contest Kissinger says must be understood, before anything else, as a 1,000-year-old Sunni-Shia “religious struggle”.
In fact, Kissinger reduces much of Egypt’s part in the Arab Spring to a study of what not to do in the hypothetical case of Saudi Arabia. The United States had supported the original Tahrir Square uprising at the expense of its old ally Hosni Mubarak. But instead of democracy and freedom, the uprising gave way to a party that identified democracy as a “plebiscite on the implementation of religious domination” and then to a new military regime cold to American interests. Should America, Kissinger asks, “support every popular uprising against any non-democratic government, including those heretofore considered important in sustaining the international system?” The Saudis, Kissinger points out, came to see American policy towards Egypt “as the threat of American abandonment”.
Political Islam is a danger primarily, Kissinger argues, because it, like Islam itself, is driven by a totalising and unifying imperative to expand the “House of Islam” (Dar Al Islam) at the expense of the “House of War” (Dar Al Harb). Modern political Islam, a lineage of ideas Kissinger traces from Sayyid Qutb to Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hizbollah, the Taliban, Iran’s rulers and ISIL, is a “declaration of war” against the Westphalian conception of a system of sovereign states. Its vision of one, ever-enlarging, just state makes political Islam incompatible with a balance of power.
Whether this is too essentialist or facile is just one problem. In contrast, Kissinger doesn't take issue with many other sovereignty-reducing global regimes. For a book titled World Order, that Kissinger mentions the International Monetary Fund only once, in passing, and the International Criminal Court not at all are just two of many conspicuous absences.
But in an era when “renationalisation” has become a buzzword – whether with regards to the internet or currencies – and when crucial crises explicitly concern states, such as Russia, Ukraine, Syria and Iraq, Kissinger’s state-centric view of a complex world may be found very persuasive by policymakers and so deserves to be well-considered.
Caleb Lauer is a freelance journalist based in Turkey.
thereview@thenational.ae
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How Apple's credit card works
The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.
What does it cost?
Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.
What will the interest rate be?
The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts
What about security?
The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.
Is it easy to use?
Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision.
* Associated Press
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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EVIL%20DEAD%20RISE
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MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
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Company%20Profile
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20specs%3A%20Macan%20Turbo
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Company%20Profile
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Fighting with My Family
Director: Stephen Merchant
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Nick Frost, Lena Headey, Florence Pugh, Thomas Whilley, Tori Ellen Ross, Jack Lowden, Olivia Bernstone, Elroy Powell
Four stars
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million