Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Will Barbieheimer and Taylor Swift dominate?

Ah, the Golden Globes . While it’s been 80 years since the first ceremony took place, when a group of foreign journalists working in Hollywood banded together to produce an awards show that grew in scope and stature in the following years, this is in many ways a new beginning. The Globes rose in industry prominence and public viewership, especially because the ceremony itself was able to create a more party-like atmosphere than its stuffier counterpart the Academy Awards . However, it was unable to maintain that momentum after a series of scandals upended the status quo. Now, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been disbanded and new ownership has taken over, with an anonymous votership of 300 journalists from around the world deciding the winners. While that makes this the most unpredictable awards ceremony in history, it certainly won’t stop me trying to predict who will win. Best Motion Picture – Drama Anatomy of a Fall Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives The Zone of Interest While Oppenheimer has continued to exceed all expectations since its release last July, Christopher Nolan’s biopic of the titular scientist is up against three other hugely acclaimed and much buzzed-about historical epics. They include the Martin Scorsese-helmed dive into early 20th-century tragedies in the Osage Nation, Killers of the Flower Moon ; director and actor Bradley Cooper’s look at the life of Leonard Bernstein, Maestro ; and director Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust historical drama The Zone of Interest , a Cannes Film Festival favourite. But having so many films with such similar qualities could split the votes. This would also be a great opportunity for the new Globes to assert itself as a more internationally-minded awards programme than its too-often Hollywood-focused competitors. That leaves Anatomy of a Fall , perhaps the best film of the year in my opinion. And Past Lives , an emotional drama about a doomed potential romance between a woman who left South Korea as a child and the man who stayed but never forgot her. That hook has made Past Lives resonate with those who find themselves caught between cultures, which many foreign journalists stationed in Hollywood may especially relate to. It’s reason enough for director Celine Song to score an upset. Prediction: Past Lives Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Air, American Fiction Barbie The Holdovers May December Poor Things One Golden Globes quirk continues, as the Best Motion Picture category for comedies and musicals still contains films such as May December that many would have trouble classifying as comedy. While it’s tempting to want to hand this one to Barbie , especially as a new award for Box Office Achievement has been added to make things a bit more populist, the late love being thrown at potential future Christmas classic The Holdovers could push it over the top. Prediction: The Holdovers Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language Anatomy of a Fall Fallen Leaves Io Capitano Past Lives Society of the Snow The Zone of Interest An especially strong category that also includes the cinephile romance Fallen Leaves and the harrowing Society of the Snow will likely go to one of the three films also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. If I picked Past Lives there because of its resonant themes, I certainly can’t back down and pick the film I prefer now. Especially as in the early critics’ awards ceremonies, Anatomy of a Fall kept falling short of expectations. Prediction: Past Lives Best Motion Picture – Animated The Boy and the Heron Elemental Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse The Super Mario Bros Movie Suzume, Wish As much as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse dominated mid-year conversation and The Super Mario Bros Movie overperformed at the box office, thus getting a song called Peaches stuck in many a child’s head, this has been an exceptionally strong year for Japanese releases. So Suzume and The Boy and the Heron are my favourites here. The latter is the grander achievement, as it marks not only the first film from the legendary animator and octogenarian Hayao Miyazaki since 2013’s The Wind Rises , it’s also a return to the fantastical worlds and themes that he build his career upon. It’s a commercial and critical hit across the world, fitting with what the new Globes should be all about. Prediction: The Boy and the Heron Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Barbie Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 John Wick: Chapter 4 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Oppenheimer Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse The Super Mario Bros Movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour This is the silliest, most desperately attention-seeking category of the lot, and so we have to assume that they’ll ignore some of the bigger blockbusters and aim for the film that will do the most to make this ceremony seem relevant in a different way to its competitors. That means making a very passionate fan base very, very happy. Prediction: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour Best Director – Motion Picture Bradley Cooper, Maestro Greta Gerwig, Barbie Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Celine Song, Past Lives In an exceptionally competitive category, with two titans of the industry in Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese both operating at the peak of their powers, this is a tremendous opportunity to make a different statement entirely. In Greta Gerwig, the movie world has a woman filmmaker who has shown that she can be both a critical and commercial darling, taking a toy property that no other filmmaker knew what to do with and turning it into an extremely personal, yet accessible comedy chock-full of big statements about the world we live in today. While the film’s shine may have worn off a bit since release, Gerwig’s certainly hasn’t. Prediction: Greta Gerwig Best Screenplay – Motion Picture Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie Tony McNamara, Poor Things Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Celine Song, Past Lives Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall Here is the category in which I believe Anatomy of a Fall can get some of the credit it deserves. Its script, by the film’s director Justine Triet and her collaborator, Egyptian-French writer and director Arthur Harari, is a mystery that feels like no other, imbued with a maturity rarely found in film these days. There are also characters that feel deeply real, and observations about life, womanhood and relationships that feel fresh. It’s a real firecracker. Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Bradley Cooper, Maestro Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Colman Domingo, Rustin Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers This has been a breakout year in many respects for a number of these nominees. Barry Keoghan somehow managed to deliver a great performance in a bad movie to prove decisively that he has what it takes to be a leading man. Colman Domingo’s moment is also here, following the momentum he created with scene-stealing roles in films such as Zola. But as much as Bradley Cooper may seem to cover these awards, this is Cillian Murphy’s year. One, because he turned in probably the most culturally iconic performance of the decade thus far, and two, because Paul Giamatti isn’t nominated in this category. (He’s over in Comedy/Musical). Prediction: Cillian Murphy Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Annette Bening, Nyad Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall Greta Lee, Past Lives Carey Mulligan, Maestro Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla While no performance has kept me guessing quite like Sandra Hüller’s, as new depths to the character were revealed scene by scene, and as much as Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon proved she could stand on equal footing with some of the greatest actors of our time, I believe that Greta Lee’s performance in Past Lives does so much to give life to a somewhat shallowly-drawn character, that it’s hard to even notice that her personality rarely transcends her circumstances. That’s what great actors do. Prediction: Greta Lee Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario Timothée Chalamet, Wonka Matt Damon, Air Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction If this were merely about crowning the funniest performance of the year, the award would have to go to Joaquin Phoenix, whose turn in Beau is Afraid is a culmination of his exploration of those left behind by modern society, as he plays a man so paralysed by his own indecision that the world more or less caves in on him. But Giamatti’s performance is even better, full of warmth and humour and incredible pathos. It’s also a moment for a beloved actor to finally step into the spotlight he has long deserved. Prediction: Paul Giamatti Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings Natalie Portman, May December Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves Margot Robbie, Barbie Emma Stone, Poor Things A stellar line-up of talent and performances. But Emma Stone continues to be the “unicorn” that her television collaborator Benny Safdie describes her to be, a tremendous young actor who pushes herself into daring and experimental territory like no other. While Margot Robbie might be the crowd favourite, Stone is the clear standout of Poor Things . Prediction: Emma Stone Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role Willem Dafoe, Poor Things Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie Charles Melton, May December Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things This is the category that the world has been arguing over for nearly a year. Robert De Niro turned in some of the best work of his career in Killers , Charles Melton reached a different level, but it all comes down to Robert Downey Jr and Ryan Gosling, whose films were released on the same day. Let’s give this one to Downey Jr, as Gosling is too consistently good, and Downey Jr hasn’t showed these chops in what feels like decades. Prediction: Robert Downey Jr Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Jodie Foster, Nyad Julianne Moore, May December Rosamund Pike, Saltburn Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers While Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore have long been awards season darlings, this is a great chance to focus on a rising star in Da’Vine Joy Randolph, whose turn in The Holdovers , not to mention her capable Boston accent, was one of the great joys, ahem, of the year. Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph Best Original Score – Motion Picture Poor Things Oppenheimer The Boy and the Heron The Zone of Interest Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Killers of the Flower Moon Hans Zimmer Who? Ludwig Göransson’s score for Oppenheimer is so remarkably good, it has made Christopher Nolan’s previous constant collaborator seem like a distant memory. This will prove impossible to beat. Prediction: Oppenheimer Best Original Song – Motion Picture Addicted to Romance, She Came to Me Dance the Night, Barbie I’m Just Ken, Barbie Peaches, The Super Mario Bros Movie Road to Freedom, Rustin What Was I Made For?, Barbie Enough time has passed for us all to admit that Ken was the real star of Barbie , and I’m Just Ken was his greatest moment, a showcase of not only Gosling’s talent, but of some stellar songwriting. Prediction: I’m Just Ken , Barbie Television categories Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy Abbott Elementary Barry The Bear Jury Duty Only Murders in the Building Ted Lasso Barry ’s final season was too divisive, as was Ted Lasso ’s. This one has to go to the sleeper hit restaurant-set show that somehow avoided the sophomore slump. Prediction: The Bear Best Television Series – Drama 1923 The Crown The Diplomat The Last of Us The Morning Show Succession The final stretch of one of HBO’s most talked-about hits capped off a tremendous four-season run for Succession , and it will be hard for anything else to draw attention away from it, even the freshman hit The Last of Us . Prediction: Succession Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama Brian Cox, Succession Kieran Culkin, Succession Gary Oldman, Slow Horses Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us Jeremy Strong, Succession Dominic West, The Crown The Succession men may be the best performances here, but they’ll split the votes because they each turned in work too good to stand out. This one will go to everyone’s favourite don’t-call-him-daddy. Prediction: Pedro Pascal Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama Helen Mirren, 1923 Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us Keri Russell, The Diplomat Sarah Snook, Succession Imelda Staunton, The Crown Emma Stone, The Curse Can they give every award to Emma Stone? My heart is certainly hoping so. But if I have to make the call, Snook’s work on this final season put her over the top. Prediction: Sarah Snook Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy Ayo Edebiri, The Bear Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building Fanning, The Great A number of standouts here, but only one person has turned herself into one of the most talked-about actors of the year after being an unknown two years ago. Prediction: Ayo Edebiri Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy Bill Hader, Barry Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building Jason Segel, Shrinking Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso Jeremy Allen White, The Bear Bill Hader turned in the best work of his career in this last season of Barry , but the crowd favourite has to be Jeremy Allen White, who created a character for the ages that really came into his own in his show’s second season. Prediction: Jeremy Allen White Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Television Series Billy Crudup, The Morning Show Matthew Macfadyen, Succession James Marsden, Jury Duty Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear Alan Ruck, Succession Alexander Skarsgård, Succession It's rare that a late addition can make the impact that Skarsgård did in the show’s final season, but this one has to go to his standout scene partner Macfadyen, who (spoiler) came out the show’s winner both on screen and off. Prediction: Matthew Macfadyen Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Television Series Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown Abby Elliott, The Bear Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets J Smith Cameron, Succession Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso It's an awards show. It’s Meryl Streep. Come on, now. Prediction: Meryl Streep Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television All the Light We Cannot See Beef Daisy Jones & the Six Fargo Fellow Travelers Lessons in Chemistry While Fargo may have refound its magic and Lessons in Chemistry may still need to find its audience, Beef was a word-of-mouth smash with both critics and audiences, and is nearly a lock to pick this one up. Prediction: Beef Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six Jon Hamm, Fargo Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves Steven Yeun, Beef Jon Hamm may try to be a movie star, but this is where he belongs. His villainous work here is the best he’s been since Mad Men . But even then, I can’t give this to him. There was an even better and more beloved performance this year. Prediction: Steven Yeun Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death Juno Temple, Fargo Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers Ali Wong, Beef Juno Temple has never been better than in Fargo , and Rachel Weisz showed new levels of range. But this is Beef ’s year. Prediction: Ali Wong Best Stand-Up Comedian on Television In a dire category honouring a dying artform, I’m going to pick a name out of a hat. Prediction: Trevor Noah

Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Will Barbieheimer and Taylor Swift dominate?

The 80th edition of the awards is being rebooted this year, making it harder to guess than ever