Tehran betrays brave words by its own actions



As protests once again surface in Iran, the statements of its leaders have become impossible to reconcile with their actions.

Amid comparisons of the Egyptian revolution to Iran in 1979 - which were always something of a stretch - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a sermon a few weeks ago calling on Egyptians to rise against a "traitor dictator", the former president Hosni Mubarak. "The enemy is using its security forces against you in order to put fear and intimidation in your hearts," Mr Khamenei said.

One wonders if Mr Khamenei saw the irony in his words. Under his watchful eye in 2009, thousands of military and state police suppressed members of the Green Movement following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial re-election. The arrests, indefinite detainments and allegations of torture that emerged revealed how far the stated aspirations of 1979 had fallen under the heel of the regime.

As the events of 25 Bahman (February 14 on the Iranian calendar) show, the opposition's anger remains strong, as does the regime's anxiety. Basij militia and local police forces were deployed to monitor protests, with demonstrations spanning the city of Rasht in the northwest to Shiraz in the southeast. Chants against Mr Khamenei clearly did not place him in the revolutionary camp: "Mubarak! Ben Ali! Nobateh Sayyid Ali!" ("Mubarak, Ben Ali, now it's time for Sayyid Ali!").

Rather than answer grievances, Tehran fell back on its old coercive tactics. The government deployed security forces, twisted the local media to portray demonstrators as a small group of seditious troublemakers and suppressed communications. The opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi were again placed under house arrest, with pro-government politicians calling for their execution. Internet and cell phone communication were also drastically curtailed.

The regime's response has differed little from previous demonstrations, but it does nothing to address the demands that spurred the last round of violence. The Greens may have been crushed, but they have not been placated. Recent economic reforms seem to have made little impact on the frustrations of so many.

If Egypt and Tunisia have proven anything, it is that currents of change cannot be trodden underfoot forever. The regime's leaders may still pay lip service to a revolutionary line, but they seem to have forgotten that real grievances and an oppressive regime were the spark of 1979.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
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9. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep         

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