Sudan vote is first step on longer road

The enthusiasm for reform in southern Sudan is warranted, but it must be matched with properly managed expectations for the bumpy road that awaits.

These are heady days for the South Sudanese, what many of them hope fill be the "final walk of freedom" for the "lost boys of Sudan". Beginning today, voters will cast ballots to decide whether to form an independent nation, five years after the end of a bloody civil war.

While the vote might cement Juba as the world's newest capital, the road ahead remains treacherous. A return to violence is not outside the realm of what's possible if all sides don't cooperate to avert it.

Part of the onus lies with Sudan's president, Omar al Bashir. Mistrusted he may be, particularly in the West, but there is much he can do to maintain calm. Encouragingly, his rhetoric in the referendum's run-up was not entirely unhelpful, as he conceded that "imposing unity by force doesn't work".

Defining what will work is another matter. An area the size of Texas, South Sudan is almost entirely devoid of paved roads, is riddled with corruption and lacks even the most basic of services. The relocation of tens of thousands of southerners from the North, if voters choose separation as many expect, will add pressure on an already stressed infrastructure (though the migration, if it occurs, is likely to go both ways).

The end of voting will not bring an immediate split, and there would be time to ease the transition. Yet doing so will require a steady hand, and continued international focus. The UN, and particularly the US, should be lauded for pushing today's vote forward, but far more than hand-holding will be required in the days ahead. Key agreements on citizenship, currency, energy revenues and water, to name a few, have yet to be finalised.

Oil is the most obvious issue to address. While much of Sudan's oil reserves are in the South, the North's pipelines are critical to bringing it to market. Cooperation will also be critical in resolving control over other oil rich regions, including Abyei, a disputed district that straddles the north-south border. Level heads are needed to keep these and other disputes from spiralling out of control.

There are reasons for optimism. Early last year, international observers were warning that a return to violence was certain if the global community did not do more to enforce peace deals. These fears have largely been averted; that the referendum is being held at all should be seen as a victory.

Now the real work begins. For many in the South, the possibility of separation represents an opportunity at rebirth, and long-awaited self-determination. This enthusiasm is warranted, but it must be matched with properly managed expectations for the bumpy road that awaits. If, we're witnessing the "true emancipation of the people of Southern Sudan", as the former South African president Thabo Mbeki said at the weekend, the hard work ahead will involve more than one vote.