Road-death stats only tell part of the story



In a country where accident mortality rates are among the highest in the world and where driver behaviour is often a cause for grave concern, collecting and accurately recording data from road accidents is vital. Statistics help the traffic authorities to pinpoint the causes of accidents and identify the individuals in terms of age, sex and nationality who are most likely to be involved in such incidents, all of which will help them better respond to any future emergencies and fine tune future road safety campaigns.

The data collected by Dubai Police reveals that drivers from Pakistan were involved in a fifth of all deaths on Dubai’s roads last year. As reported by The National, the study also points out that in 2012 Indian motorists topped the accident list in which 32 people died. Emiratis were involved in accidents that killed 29 people in that same year.

Police departments all over the world collect such information as part of their efforts to tackle road safety issues, but they also face the issue of how to interpret and use the data available to them.

The two main variables with any data are sample-size and interpretation. A small amount of data will inevitably produce an incomplete or unsatisfactory set of results – in this instance, the statistics only apply to one year in one emirate.

But interpretation is also crucial. Using nationality to gauge driving competence is a blunt instrument: there are so many other variables that could change the conclusion. In this case, the assertions about accident-prone Pakistani drivers raise several many questions: What types of vehicles – buses, pickup trucks, heavy vehicles – are driven by those identified as most accident-prone? How long had they been driving for and from where did they obtain their licenses? Are those vehicles maintained properly? Are these drivers of privately owned vehicles or are they tradesmen or long-distance lorry drivers? How many kilometres does that driver cover each year?

Data is immensely valuable and there are many unexpected findings hidden in big data. Certainly, a broader survey of incidents will bring a more complete conclusion. That, coupled with better interpretation, will help the authorities on their journey towards improving the standard of driving on our roads and reducing fatalities.

Leap of Faith

Michael J Mazarr

Public Affairs

Dh67
 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi

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