Crisis of confidence after banks caught gaming the system



Modern banking began with a war. More than 700 years ago, the Republic of Venice fell short of funds during a military conflict. They borrowed money at 4 per cent interest from a hastily created organisation known as the Chamber of Loans.

This fledgling body began taking deposits from Venetian merchants and lending the money onward. Modern banking was born.

Other cities in Europe - Genoa, Barcelona, Amsterdam, Hamburg - gradually followed. These banks fuelled the rise of Europe to global economic dominance. Indeed, it can be argued that Europe's eclipse of the Middle East from the 15th century onward owed much to two inventions: gunpowder and banks.

Eventually, banking swept the world, and it is hard to imagine today's global prosperity without banks. Lines of finance and credit from banks have built our global infrastructure, fuelled innovation, spurred the trade revolution and supported life-saving technological breakthroughs.

That's why the state of banks today is so troubling.

Yes, banks continue to fuel growth, support commerce and trade, and undergird the globalisation that has brought undoubted benefits to our world. But over the past decade, banks have lost their most important currency: trust. And the events of the past week have exacerbated the trust gap.

Let's start with "the Whale". That was the nickname of Bruno Iksil, a London-based trader with JP Morgan Chase, whose bets were so large that they moved markets. Eventual Mr Iksil beached: it turns out that JP Morgan Chase could be facing $7 billion (Dh25.7 billion) in losses from three London traders including him.

Of course, that's the nature of trading: you can win big, or lose big. The real problem, it seems, is that "the Whale" and associates sought to hide their losses.

The firm is coming clean, but the loss is particularly troubling because its chairman and chief executive officer, Jamie Dimon, emerged from the 2008 banking crisis as "the adult in the room" - the careful, sober banker who was not part of the reckless leverage and risk-taking culture that had taken hold in Wall Street.

Another US banker, too, has had a rough month: Bob Diamond, former CEO of the British institution Barclays, the fourth-largest bank in the world. Mr Diamond was swept out of his post unceremoniously amid a scandal over endemic manipulation of the Libor rate - the interest rate at which banks lend to each other.

It turns out Barclays sought to keep the Libor rate artificially high when it suited them, and to lower it when it suited them - that is, to inflate their own profits, at the expense of customers and millions of others. In effect, they distorted a vital interest rate market used by banks worldwide.

For that transgression, Barclays paid a $453 million fine, lost the trust of its customers and widened the trust gap between the public and banks in general.

The Libor scandal does not end with Barclays. The settlement the UK Commodities Futures Trading Commission reached with Barclays makes it clear that at least three other banks were complicit as well. Indeed, nearly all of the 17 banks that participate in Libor are under investigation.

The financial services industry took another heavy blow this week in a breathtaking case of blatant fraud. The founder and president of Peregrine Financial Group, a financial futures brokerage, admitted to embezzling more than $100 million from clients over nearly 20 years. Although the amount is much smaller, the action recalls Bernie Madoff's siphoned billions.

Meanwhile, across Europe, banks continue to suffer under the weight of debt loads built up in years of reckless lending and over-leverage. Bank weakness in southern Europe will continue to plague eurozone recovery efforts.

Banks in the UAE and across the GCC bought into the reckless, risk-taking culture. Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, the chairman of Mashreq Bank and new chairman of the DIFC Authority, told Gulf Business magazine in a frank interview: "There was so much pressure on banks to grow, grow and grow. They compromised on their basic lending philosophy, we lost sight of some things."

The always-sensible Martin Wolf of the Financial Times reminds us that "the days when the local bank manager was almost as respected as the doctor have long gone. We are never going to turn bankers into saints". But, as Wolf notes: "We can change the incentives facing bankers, the structure of banking and the focus of regulation. Where I would go further is towards substantially lower leverage and significantly greater transparency."

These two ideas would a be a good start. A war in Venice launched modern banking. Regulation will play a critical role, but the war for the future of this vital institution needs to be fought in boardrooms.

Banking leaders must understand that their most valuable currency - trust - has depreciated sharply.

Afshin Molavi is a senior adviser at Oxford Analytica and a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington DC

On Twitter: @afshinmolavi

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Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year

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Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings

Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year

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Monday, February 4
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6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


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9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

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How to keep control of your emotions

If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.

Greed

Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.

Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.

Fear

The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.

Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.

Hope

While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.

Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.

Frustration

Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.

Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.

Boredom

Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.

Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.

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