Busted-flush Tories are an easy target for political operators
With party officials under investigation for betting on the date of the UK election, the Conservatives look exhausted by their time in power
Grasping or grifting is not the persona British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gives off. And yet he now owns the cyclical decline of the Conservative governing class. AFP
Back in late 2006, James Forsyth was delighted to tell a friend in a Washington bar about his job offer at The Spectator magazine in London and how it would open up an opportunity for him to conquer the world of Westminster politics.
He shared his excitement during the last glory days of a Republican Party-controlled Washington. Some weeks later, the Democratic Party would take over the US Congress in a backlash against George W Bush’s Iraq war. Mr Forsyth returned to London to lead the magazine’s political team, and along the way served as best man at Rishi Sunak’s wedding.
The culmination of his rise to the top in Westminster came at the end of 2022, after Mr Sunak became UK Prime Minister and Mr Forsyth was appointed his political secretary.
One reminder that he had moved between the two codes came after he took the job. He was made to queue up at security check to enter Parliament for a meeting with the Welsh MP Craig Williams. Why were there strict checks for someone so close to power? He explained to the guard that he was waiting for a new pass to enter on his own credentials.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaking during a visit to Northampton Town Football Club at Sixfields Stadium. PA
Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak delivers a speech in central London. AFP
Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey jet-washes an ambulance in London. Getty Images
Mr Starmer rests his hand on the shoulder of Idris Elba as they meet families of knife crime victims, in west London. PA
Mr Sunak turns on the power in the training centre control room during a tour of the Sizewell B nuclear power plant. AFP
Mr Davey plays a game of Frisbee on a visit to farm in Hampshire. AP
Mr Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves visit a supermarket in Swindon. PA
Mr Sunak speaks to journalists on the campaign bus following the launch of the Welsh Conservatives General Election manifesto near Rhyl. Reuters
Mr Davey taking part in wheelbarrow racing at Huish Park, home of Yeovil Town football club in Somerset. PA
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, speaks to the press in Clacton-on-Sea. Bloomberg
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of the Labour party's 2024 general election manifesto in Manchester. AP
Mr Sunak answers questions from the audience in Grimsby. Getty Images
Mr Davey toasts a marshmallow as he visits Willow Forest School in Surrey. EPA
Mr Farage attends the launch of the Reform UK manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales. Reuters
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar launches Scottish Labour’s battle bus campaign on June 17 in South Queensferry, Scotland. Getty Images
Britain's Labour Party politician and Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting speaks to a television crew outside the BBC in London. AFP
Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, on the BBC 1 current affairs programme, Sunday, with Laura Kuenssberg. BBC
Mr Sunak meets pupils in a maths class during a visit to the John Whitgift Academy, in Grimsby. AP
Mr Starmer during a visit to Grimsby Institute, a technical training college in Grimsby. PA
Mr Davey during a general election campaign visit to the Aqua Jungle Spot in Stratford-upon-Avon. Bloomberg
Mr Sunak and Akshata Murty take centre stage at the Conservative Party's general election manifesto launch in Towcester. Getty Images
Mr Starmer passes a toothbrush to a child during his visits to the Whale Hill Primary School in Middlesbrough. AP
Mr Davey meets Steve Darling, Liberal Democrat candidate for Torbay and his guide dog Jennie at Torquay Harbour. Getty Images
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts after something is thrown towards him on the campaign bus in Cawthorne, Barnsley. AP
Mr Sunak attends a neighbourhood watch meeting in Horsham, West Sussex. PA
Mr Starmer helps volunteers pot plants during a visit to Harlesden Town Garden in north-west London. PA
Mr Davey on the 'Rush' ride during a Liberal Democrats general election campaign event at Thorpe Park. Reuters
Mr Sunak, during a visit to Imagination Childcare, in Swindon, Wiltshire, while on the election campaign trail. PA
Mr Starmer visits Brent Cross town's visitor pavilion for a housing launch in London. Getty Images
Mr Davey grills burgers in a garden, during campaigning in Wiltshire. PA
Mr Sunak during a visit to Leander Club, in Henley-on-Thames, as a boat carrying Liberal Democrat supporters passes behind him. Reuters
Mr Starmer meets pensioners to talk about the impact of the energy crisis and the cost of living, in a cafe in Bolton. PA
Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer lock horns the first televised general election debate of the campaign, at MediaCity in Salford. PA
Mr Davey plays Jenga using symbolic 'blue wall' blocks in Stockport. EPA
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn poses outside Islington Town Hall, north London, after handing in his nomination papers for the general election, taking place on July 4. PA
Mr Farage has a milkshake hurled at him during a campaign event in Clacton-on-Sea. EPA
Mr Sunak launches the Conservative Party's campaign bus at Redcar Racecourse in north-east England. PA
Labour launch their election campaign bus, with Mr Starmer, his deputy Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, in Uxbridge. Getty Images
Mr Davey holds a balloon with a figure that represents the amount of votes the Liberal Democrat party lost by in Wimbledon. PA
Mr Sunak feeds lambs as he visits Rowlinson's Farm during a Conservative general election campaign event in Gawsworth. Reuters
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Mr Starmer, shadow secretary of state for energy security and net zero Ed Miliband and local candidate Martin McCluskey in Greenock. PA
Mr Sunak holds a question and answer session during a visit to Niftylift in Milton Keynes. EPA
Mr Starmer serves ice cream to day trippers on Barry seafront in South Wales. PA
Mr Davey takes part in a baking lesson with pupils from High Beeches Primary School during a half-term holiday camp in Hertfordshire. PA
Mr Sunak speaks with a cafe worker as he picks up breakfast for the media at a cafe in Cornwall. PA
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of Labour's six steps for change in Wales at the Priory Centre in Abergavenny. PA
Mr Davey and Anna Sabine, parliamentary candidate for Frome and East Somerset, ride the Ultimate Slip 'n' Slide at Eastcote Farm in Beckington. Bloomberg
Scottish National Party Leader John Swinney speaks during a visit to The Dower House Cafe in Edinburgh. AP
Rishi Sunak examines Jackal armoured vehicles during his visit to defence vehicle manufacturer Supacat in Exeter. PA
Keir Starmer with a baby at Worcester City Football Club. PA
Ed Davey rides a bike during a visit to Knighton, Wales. PA
Nigel Farage at the cliffs in Dover after speaking at a Reform UK event. Getty Images
Akshata Murty, wife of Mr Sunak, meets with residents during a visit to a Royal British Legion care home in Ripon. Getty Images
Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves during a visit to Rolls Royce’s educational training complex in Derby. PA
Ed Davey falls into the water while paddle boarding on Lake Windermere. PA
Rishi Sunak campaigning in Amersham, Buckinghamshire. EPA
Mr Starmer addresses party members and media in Lancing Parish Hall, West Sussex. Getty Images
Mr Davey launches his party's general election campaign battle bus in Cambridge. PA
Mr Sunak on the ball during a visit to Chesham United Football Club. PA
Mr Starmer speaks to party supporters after making his first keynote speech of the campaign in Lancing. PA
Mr Davey join supporters for a dog walk near Winchester. PA
Mr Sunak visits a maritime technology centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland, as he campaigns for the general election on July 4. Reuters
Mr Starmer and his Scottish counterpart, Anas Sarwar, greet supporters at the launch of the Scottish Labour general election campaign at Caledonia House in Glasgow. Getty Images
Mr Davey, right, eats ice cream with his party's local candidate, Josh Babarinde, on the promenade in Eastbourne. PA
Mr Sunak arrives at Inverness Airport, in Scotland, on the general election campaign trail. PA
Mr Starmer during a visit to Gillingham Football Club in Kent. PA
Mr Sunak speaks with members of staff at the Global Energy Group facility at the Port of Nigg in north-east Scotland. AFP
Mr Davey during a visit to the town centre in Cheltenham. PA
Richard Tice, the leader of Reform UK, attends an election campaign launch in London. AP
Mr Sunak holds a Q&A with staff of a West Transport distribution centre in Ilkeston in the East Midlands. AP
Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner and Mr Starmer arrive at Gillingham FC. Getty Images
Mr Sunak takes questions from workers at West Transport. Getty Images
Mr Starmer holds a piece of campaign branding at Gillingham. PA
Mr Sunak poses for a selfie in Ilkeston. AFP
The name Craig Williams came up again just after this year’s UK general election was called – and it will provide us a hefty footnote in the history of the election. It was Mr Williams, as part of Mr Sunak’s inner circle, who was outed as having gambled on the date of the election just before it was announced.
The MP placed a bet on the date, which he recently admitted in a statement. Revelations that he was not the only member of the close-knit teams around the Prime Minister to have done so since dripped out to fatal effect for an already flatlining Conservative campaign.
It is reported that the sums involved for those who have been at the centre of the activity are not huge. It is the decision itself that is being investigated for potential breaches of the law. Using inside knowledge of something to wager is illegal in the UK because of the obvious advantage it delivers.
In the last days of the election campaign, the intensity of any development is heightened. A scandal involving several figures somehow linked to Downing Street is a political mishap of epic standards. What it says to the public is that something badly amiss can be symbolised by the angry headlines.
It is reported that the sums involved for those who have been at the centre of the activity are not huge. It is the decision itself that is being investigated
Already far ahead in the polls, Labour’s Keir Starmer is on the attack, castigating the culture of his rivals. “The instincts of these Tories when a general election is called is not how do we make this work for the country, but how do I make some money?”
As an epithet to lay on a rival in a general election, it is gold dust for Mr Starmer.
Mr Sunak and Mr Forsyth have not been accused of any such malfeasance. Their shared personal ethos seems a million miles from this sort of behaviour. Grasping or grifting is not the persona either man has ever given off. And yet they now own the cyclical decline of the Conservative governing class that has descended through round after round of tarnishing behavioural scandal.
The impact on the polls cannot be anything but negative, even if the 20 per cent threshold of the Conservatives means there is little standing left to lose.
It is important to remember the circumstances in which Mr Sunak rose to the highest executive office in the land in 2022, making him the third UK prime minister in a year. The first fell because social parties in Downing Street were repeatedly held while the rest of the country endured lockdown regulations that imposed fines, in some cases criminal court appearances for illegal gatherings.
Boris Johnson left power in disbelief that it was this behaviour by him and his close team that could have robbed him of high office. The man who had won a majority that rivalled any was being turfed out because of the unleashed behaviour of those around him.
Recklessness of a different sort accounted for Liz Truss, the 49-day comet of a prime minister. Her trashing of how government worked and the process around putting out a budget pushed the Conservatives’ centuries of trust to handle the economy over the proverbial cliff.
Mr Sunak had the task of closing the black hole. He has performed that mission. The finances of the country are not particularly rosy, but they are back on track.
The people running the Conservative government are different. Mr Sunak and Mr Forsyth dispensed with almost all the henchmen of the previous leaders. Yet they were drawing for their own team on the wellspring of a Conservative party exhausted by its time in power. Its hierarchy became an easy framework for operators to climb, greatly guided in their own self-interest.
Eyes on the bigger goals of leading the nation and working within the disciplines of state have obviously atrophied. It is too early to speak of renewal. To be on the right in Washington in 2006 wasn’t even as glum as this.