AI hitting global labour market ‘like a tsunami’, says IMF chief

Kristalina Georgieva tells World Governments Summit that 60 per cent of jobs in advanced economies could be affected

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in conversation with CNN's Richard Quest at the World Governments Summit in Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National

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Artificial intelligence is like a “tsunami” hitting the global labour market, the head of the International Monetary Fund said at a major event in Dubai on Tuesday.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the fund, said 60 per cent of jobs in advanced economies could be affected, transformed or eliminated due to uptake of the emerging technology.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit, Ms Georgieva laid bare the turmoil and promise AI holds for the world, reacted to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs and spoke about the economic challenges in a multipolar world.

On AI, Ms Georgieva outlined how its power was already sending currents of transformation through the world.

“What we assess is that artificial intelligence is already like a tsunami hitting the labour market,” she said.

“In advanced economies, 60 per cent of jobs over the next short period of time will be either enhanced, become more productive or transformed or eliminated.”

This figure could be 40 per cent in emerging markets and 26 per cent in low-income countries, she said.

'A great story … or a sad story'

“It can be a great story, a world that becomes more productive,” she said. “Or a sad story – a world that is more divided.

“The haves have more, the have nots are completely lost.”

Ms Georgieva cautioned against theories that lower-income countries were better placed to deal with the onslaught with opportunities potentially “not available to all”.

When asked about new technologies such as AI and if it was the “tail wagging the dog” she said the dog was “already barking at us and we better be prepared”.

More broadly, she said it was crucial to recognise there was a now a “multi-polar world” with some emerging market economies moving forward “much faster” usually because of the three “ds” – deregulation; digitisation; and diversification.

The challenges and opportunities brought by AI are in sharp focus not just in Dubai but around the world. US Vice President JD Vance warned on Tuesday against over-regulating AI.

Speaking at a global AI summit in Paris, France he said the US believes “AI is going to make our workers more productive”.

“We expect that they will reap the rewards with higher wages, better benefits, and safer and more prosperous communities,” he said in remarks carried by AFP.

A report from 2023 by Goldman Sachs said AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs. But the potential impact is hard to quantify.

The UAE and France on Monday signed the UAE-France Framework for Co-operation in AI to deepen collaboration in the field ahead of the summit.

Uncertainty over Trump tariff plan

In a conversation moderated by CNN’s Richard Quest, Ms Georgieva also reflected on US President Donald Trump's plan to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all aluminium and steel imports, simply stating it was too early to assess their impact.

“It is an evolving story,” she said. “There are many, many unknowns,” she said.

“There are other elements of policy that are yet to come – tax, public spending, reform of immigration, deregulation, artificial intelligence and crypto.

“And the most important thing we don't know is how would the reaction be – the reaction of consumers and businesses. How would countries respond?”

Turning to the global political situation, Ms Georgieva said the IMF was forecasting growth of 3.3 per cent in the next two years. She said the US economy was doing well and, despite a series of unprecedented shocks, it was a picture of a remarkably resilient world economy, with the Gulf countries “doing quite well”.

But the EU and some of the more “vulnerable emerging markets” are doing less well. But she said there were areas of concern from AI to young people’s demand for jobs in the Arab region but a surge in elderly people elsewhere.

But she cautioned against anyone drawing a “definitive conclusion” because business and countries were adaptable.

When asked about countries that can't adapt fast enough, she said this makes her wake up at night but this is why the IMF was created.

“I actually wake up in the middle of the night worrying about these countries … in conflict or coming out of conflict and then countries that have very weak governance and institutions and their performance is weak,” said Ms Georgieva.

“What we do need is to offer a helping hand to these countries, and I want to recognise the UAE for doing exactly that, and we need institutions to be an anchor of stability.”

World Governments Summit continues in Dubai until February 13