Rafic Hariri assassination: Two decades of aftershocks – and one last chapter

The 20th anniversary of the killing comes at a critical juncture for Lebanon and the wider Middle East

Many Lebanese vividly remember February 14, 2005 – the day former prime minister, Rafic Hariri, was assassinated in central Beirut. Twenty years later, the political aftershocks of the car-bomb attack are still felt in Lebanon and across the Middle East.

The 20th anniversary comes at a critical juncture for the small country and the wider region.

The 15-month war between Israel and Hamas has reshaped regional power structures. Iran's once-formidable "Axis of Resistance" – which included Syria under former President Bashar Al Assad, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and other proxies – has frayed due to significant setbacks. Meanwhile, the collapse of the Assad regime has been an immeasurable loss of strategic depth for the Tehran-led alliance.

At 12:55pm on a cold Monday, the devastating blast echoed through Beirut, plunging Lebanon into political crises, assassinations and bombings that nearly reignited civil war, just as the country was emerging from its 15-year internal conflict that ended in 1990.

A UN-led investigation into the assassination accused several Hezbollah members, but the group denied the accusations. While many Lebanese blamed Syria and the armed group, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) found no evidence implicating Hezbollah’s leadership or the Syrian government. Salim Ayyash, a Hezbollah operative convicted in absentia, was reportedly killed in an Israeli air strike in Syria last year, while others have died in murky circumstances.

For some Lebanese, Mr Ayyash's death symbolised a form of “closure” to the case.

“The 20th anniversary feels different. For us, it’s a kind of divine closure – a realisation that what the tribunal failed to achieve, time and events eventually did,” Mazen Hayek, a Dubai-based government and media adviser, told The National.

Mr Hariri’s assassination drew outrage domestically and internationally, leading to mass protests demanding an end to Syria’s 29-year military presence in Lebanon. Under intense US-led pressure, Syrian troops withdrew in April 2005. However, the influence of Damascus never faded completely and Hezbollah gradually filled the power vacuum left behind.

“Lebanese leaders during that period made a lot of compromises and accepted Hezbollah as an armed militia,” said Samy Gemayel, Lebanese MP and head of the Kataeb Party, whose brother was killed in the wave of assassinations that followed Mr Hariri’s killing.

Shifting dynamics

Two decades later, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanese politics has weakened. The recent election of Joseph Aoun as President and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister marked a turning point. For years, Hezbollah dictated political outcomes in the country's sectarian system but this time it was forced to accept a leadership that challenges its dominance.

This political shift has paved the way for renewed engagement from Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had distanced themselves from Lebanon due to Iranian influence.

Last week, Lebanon formed a new government following the visit of US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus. Washington has made clear its opposition to Hezbollah influence, with Ms Ortagus stating that the group’s involvement in the cabinet was "a red line”.

Ultimately, Hezbollah’s ally Amal, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, secured four cabinet positions, including Finance Minister Yassin Jaber, and approved a fifth nominee. This arrangement prevents Hezbollah and its allies from holding a “blocking third”, which had previously allowed them to veto key decisions requiring a two-thirds majority, a power they had exercised since the assassination of Mr Hariri.

The political shake-up came as a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was recently extended until February 18.

Some analysts argue that while Hezbollah may be weakened, it is far from defeated. The group remains a formidable force within Lebanon and retains the ability to respond militarily when threatened. Despite many of its missiles and key infrastructure being destroyed, its small arms and the many of the fighters who wield them remain intact.

“I think a lot of people assume that because Hezbollah was defeated in its war with Israel, it has been weakened across the board,” said Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programmes. “I don't see that as the case. The group has certainly lost deterrence in its struggle with Israel due to intelligence breaches but domestically it is still strong.”

“It has a heavily armed militia and the implicit threat of violence if necessary. Its political opponents sometimes make the mistake of thinking the resistance is over and that Hezbollah will transform into just another political party. That’s wishful thinking,” he told The National.

Amal Mudallali, a visiting research scholar at Princeton University in the US and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN, noted that the group retains a degree of domestic influence, meaning it is likely to attempt a political comeback eventually. “The government formation process proved this,” she affirmed.

At a crossroads

The regional landscape has also shifted dramatically, with Tehran’s influence waning. Its direct attacks on Israel last year failed to deter its arch foe and instead exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities. Experts argue that Iran lost a key element of its defence strategy when Hezbollah ceased to be a credible deterrent by Israel, increasing the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

“The Iranians have invested hundreds of millions of dollars over the years to build Hezbollah into a formidable regional force, in part to serve as a deterrent for Iran,” noted Mr Blanford. "So, from the perspective of Iran’s leadership, the Axis of Resistance has failed.

Tehran played a central role in establishing the group in the early 1980s, exploiting the chaos of Lebanon’s civil war to create a powerful militia aligned with its revolutionary ideology. In the wake of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed to the Bekaa Valley, where it trained and armed Hezbollah’s first fighters.

After Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, international efforts to disarm militias in the country gained momentum, culminating in the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 in 2004. The resolution, backed by the US and France, called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon and the disarmament of all militias, explicitly targeting Hezbollah.

Mr Hariri played a role in triggering the resolution, as he sought to strengthen Lebanese sovereignty and limit foreign interference, particularly from Syria and Iran. However, his involvement in the effort to curtail Hezbollah’s military presence put him at odds with both Damascus and Tehran. Many analysts believe his assassination in 2005 was linked to his push to disarm Hezbollah and his broader efforts to shift Lebanon away from Syrian and Iranian influence.

In Syria today, all eyes are on the new leadership as the country navigates a crucial phase of rebuilding and diplomatic recalibration. After years of civil war and international isolation, Syria’s leaders face internal challenges, such as economic crises and restoration of government, as well as external pressures from regional players looking to re-engage.

“A new Syria is being discussed by the new leadership,” said Ms Mudallali. "If they succeed in unifying the country, Syria has the potential to reshape the region, from the East to the Mediterranean."

Like the broader Middle East, Lebanon is standing at a crossroads. There is cautious optimism for political reform and economic recovery, but deep-rooted challenges persist.

“We've endured generations of disappointment – corruption, brain drain, missed opportunities and state disintegration,” said Mr Hayek. “With the new leaders, there is hope for structural reforms. However, the current parliamentary balance and entrenched political dynamics remain obstacles. Real change depends on proving they’re ready to implement reforms, reposition Lebanon and redefine its role regionally and globally.”

Independent MP Paula Yacoubian emphasised that “for the first time in 20 years, we have leaders who are builders, not part of the traditional ruling class, and who can hopefully work towards a prosperous new Lebanon".

Elected to the Parliament in 2018, Ms Yacoubian was among the first MPs from outside Lebanon’s entrenched political elite. A key priority for her has been reforming the country’s highly politicised and non-independent judiciary, long blamed for fostering a culture of impunity – especially regarding the assassination of Mr Hariri and those that followed.

“We’re still fighting for that. And now, for once in Lebanon, we have a judge as prime minister," she said.

Thomas Watkins and Willy Lowry contributed to this report from Washington