Tehran is “pressing the gas pedal” on the refinement of uranium and has its largest stockpile to date, the UN's top nuclear weapons inspector said.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran has about 200kg of uranium enriched to up to 60 per cent purity. That is close to the roughly 90 per cent required for use in a weapon, and in principle enough for about five nuclear bombs.
“They are pressing the gas pedal. It is for you to interpret and give your analysis of that, but this is the fact – we have seen it,” said Mr Grossi at the World Economic Forum in Davos, following a visit to Iran in November.
Iran's Vice President for Strategic Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, separately told delegates in Davos that if his country wanted to build a atomic weapon it "could have done it a long time ago". He said Iran was "not a security threat" despite warnings from the US and Israel about its nuclear ambitions.
"I hope that this time around a 'Trump 2' will be more serious, more focused, more realistic," he said. He said the US policy of restoring sanctions "has failed" in limiting Tehran's nuclear activities and "imposed heavy economic costs on the Iranian people".
The situation has not gotten any easier from the time President Trump left [office]
Rafael Grossi,
International Atomic Energy Agency
Asked by The National about relations between Tehran and the new US administration, Mr Grossi said US President Donald Trump would inherit a complex situation.
“So the situation has not gotten any easier from the time President Trump left,” he said. “The nuclear programme has grown dramatically in terms of capabilities, in terms of facilities, in terms of capacities, also in terms of the inventory of nuclear material, now enriching at 60 per cent.
“And so I believe that that makes it for a wider, bigger field of action for negotiation.”
Mr Grossi has not yet met Mr Trump but said he sensed the administration was open to dialogue with Tehran. Mr Grossi is seen as one of the Western officials with the closest working relationship with Tehran, and said he speaks to the Iranian president frequently.
“One can gather from the first statements from President Trump and some others in the new administration that there is a disposition to have a conservation and perhaps move into some sort of agreement,” he said.
Past talks involved the dropping of sanctions against Iran in exchange for a slowdown or halt of the nuclear programme. Mr Trump axed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and applied a policy of “maximum pressure” against Tehran.
In Davos on Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Tehran must work to improve relations with its Middle East neighbours and the United States by making it clear it does not aim to develop nuclear weapons.
Russia trip
Mr Grossi said he will visit Ukraine soon to inspect the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia, which was captured by Russian forces in March 2022. It is Europe's largest nuclear power plant and one of the largest in the world.
There has been repeated fighting in the area in the past three years, raising fears of a catastrophe.
"The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant requires me, and this has been my effort throughout, to talk to both sides. Of course, and I saw President Zelenskyy yesterday.
On visit to the plant, Mr Grossi said: "We are working on that, it will be soon."
"We see increased military activity around the plant. We are worried because of this [and are] following, of course, this very, very closely."
The story of Edge
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, established Edge in 2019.
It brought together 25 state-owned and independent companies specialising in weapons systems, cyber protection and electronic warfare.
Edge has an annual revenue of $5 billion and employs more than 12,000 people.
Some of the companies include Nimr, a maker of armoured vehicles, Caracal, which manufactures guns and ammunitions company, Lahab
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
