The new US administration’s economic policies will promote growth, the head of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund has told the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
Speaking in Davos, Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Mubadala’s managing director and chief executive, said that the US, where President Donald Trump has announced a swathe of measures to cut regulation, would lure in investors.
However, the head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, told delegates that a trade war “would not benefit anyone”, even though Mr Trump has spoken of imposing heavy tariffs on imports. In a session titled Finding Growth in Uncertain Times, Mr Al Mubarak said that when Mubadala looked for growth, its primary focus was on Asia and the United States.
“There’s a clear strategy that the US is embarking on – and that will spur growth in the US. And it will make it very attractive for investors,” he said. “Asia, I think continues to be a very important continent for growth.”
Mr Al Mubarak said that Mubadala and the UAE were committed to “heavy investment in the AI enablement space”. “We're looking at that, and that will spur growth in the UAE and, more importantly in this case, globally,” he said. “And the US will be a massive area for growth in [AI]. I expect the same in Asia and I expect us to follow these pathways.”
Børge Brende, a former Norwegian foreign minister and the World Economic Forum’s president and chief executive, said current global growth levels of around 3.3 per cent were “not bad”, but trailed the average over the previous three decades of close to four per cent.
For US growth it was important that Mr Trump’s plans for tax cuts and reductions in regulation were implemented quickly, according to David Rubenstein, co-founder and chairman of the private equity firm Carlyle. He too thought that Mr Trump’s regulatory changes would have a positive impact.
“He has a big agenda for changing regulations and other things that, I think, will spur economic growth,” Mr Rubenstein said.
Resolving conflicts is key
Conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine were key impediments to global growth, according to Mr Rubenstein, but if progress is made on these, economic growth is likely to “do quite well around the world”.
Dr Okonjo-Iweala warned, though, that there would be no winners if the introduction of tariffs sparked a trade war. She said “openness of markets” was key because “this has delivered for us”.
“I don’t want a tariff war. It will not benefit really anyone – the US or the rest of the world. It’s going to be inflationary,” she said. “In spite of all the challenges and the risks of protectionism, trade has been largely resilient. Eighty per cent of world goods trade is taking place under the WTO’s most-favoured nation status. This is a situation the world needs to preserve.”
She said that despite Mr Trump’s having signed a slew of executive orders in his first day in office, he had yet to impose any heavy tariffs with trading partners, so his actions so far were “encouraging”. Dr Okonjo-Iweala said several factors were necessary for global growth to increase, including macroeconomic stability and fiscal consolidation, as deficits were “getting quite high”.
Diversifying supply chains, something she said the European Union was promoting, would create jobs and reduce the need for people to migrate, she added.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5