BEIRUT // World leaders have called on Russia to halt air strikes in Syria which have helped regime forces as they threaten to besiege the city of Aleppo, forcing tens of thousands to flee.
The United Nations warned on Tuesday that the campaign could leave hundreds of thousands of civilians in rebel-held territory without humanitarian aid.
US secretary of state John Kerry on Tuesday urged Moscow to join efforts to bring about an immediate ceasefire, while EU president Donald Tusk warned that Russian air strikes in Syria are worsening the conflict and increasing the number of refugees trying to escape to Europe.
“As a direct consequence of the Russian military campaign, the murderous Assad regime is gaining ground, the moderate Syrian opposition is losing ground and thousands more refugees are fleeing towards Turkey and Europe,” Mr Tusk said a day after German chancellor Angela Merkel said she was “horrified” by the suffering caused by Moscow’s air strikes.
“Russia’s activities from Aleppo and in the region are making it much more difficult to be able to come to the table and be able to have a serious conversation,” Mr Kerry said on Tuesday, ahead of a meeting with major countries involved in the conflict. He is expected to push for an immediate ceasefire in Syria at the meeting in Munich on Thursday.
While the rapid shift in the war’s momentum may not signify an outright victory for Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, with each day that passes, the war is becoming increasingly harder to win for the rebels.
Aleppo has traditionally been an opposition stronghold, with the insurgents largely in control of the city for more than three years. At times, the opposition seemed poised to entirely capture Aleppo – Syria’s largest city and its commercial hub before the war.
As a city that is highly symbolic for the opposition – representing its successes, resilience and hopes throughout the nearly five-year war – the loss of Aleppo or a situation that finds the rebels cornered would deal a significant blow to their morale.
And for rebels in and around Aleppo, the situation is looking increasingly dire.
Last week, pro-government forces cut off the main rebel supply route linking rebel-held eastern Aleppo to the Turkish border north of the city. A route through rebel territory to Turkey to the west of Aleppo remains, but if the offensive continues without respite, it is likely that opposition forces in the city will be completely cut off.
The United Nations warned on Tuesday that in such a scenario hundreds of thousands of civilians in rebel-controlled territory could be left without food supplies and aid.
“If the [Syrian government] and allies sever the last remaining flight route out of eastern Aleppo city it would leave up to 300,000 people, still residing in the city, cut off from humanitarian aid,” the UN’s office for coordination of humanitarian affairs said. The UN also warned that between 100,000 and 150,000 more civilians may flee the city.
A number of rebel units in Aleppo’s countryside have been forced to retreat in the face of heavy bombardment. Occupying part of the old rebel supply route north of Aleppo, Syrian government forces find themselves just 25 kilometres south of the Turkish border.
Throughout the war, rebel territory bordering Turkey has been the gateway for weapons, ammunition and other supplies for fighters in Aleppo. It has also served as the way out for many civilians fleeing the conflict.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said on Monday that “pro-regime forces will likely complete the encirclement of Aleppo in coming weeks and besiege the opposition inside the city in order to force Turkey and Saudi Arabia to concede to a negotiated settlement or ceasefire”.
If and when the narrow strip of territory still allowing supplies into rebel-held eastern Aleppo is closed, opposition fighters will find themselves in a difficult siege along with many civilians.
With images of starving children in the besieged town of Madaya fresh in many minds, a large, trapped civilian population in Aleppo would likely result in pressure on remaining rebel fighters to come to an agreement that would favour government forces.
With tens of thousands of refugees already gathered along Syria’s border with Turkey since the Assad government’s offensive intensified, Turkish deputy prime minister Numan Kurtulmus warned on Monday that his country could see 600,000 more Syrians seeking refuge “in a worst-case scenario” resulting from the fighting. But so far amid the latest surge of refugees, Turkey has kept its border mostly closed.
Defeat in Aleppo and any potential deal that favours government forces could also serve to lure more radical rebels to ISIL, which still retains territory east of the city and has escaped the brunt of Russian air strikes.
Away from the city, advances made by regime forces in the last week has underlined the effectiveness of Russian air strikes more so than any other point since Moscow’s intervention on September 30 last year.
If the Russian air force, Syrian government troops and Shiite militias backed by Iran taking part in the offensive can replicate this success elsewhere, there are a number of other points on the map where rebel forces can be surrounded and cut off, making rebel-controlled areas look more like an archipelago than a solid block of territory.
Should peace talks in Geneva reconvene later this month as planned, the regime could essentially be holding Aleppo hostage.
On Tuesday a member of the High Negotiations Committee – delegates who represent the main Saudi-backed opposition grouping in negotiations – reiterated calls for an immediate cessation of Russian air strikes before any potential talks continue. But given that the latest heavy-handed offensive in Aleppo began while opposition and government delegates were in Geneva for UN-brokered peace talks, it appears that there is little incentive for the Syrian government or Russia to stop right now.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
* With additional reporting by Reuters and Agence France-Presse