ISLAMABAD // Pakistan's biggest opposition party announced yesterday it would not immediately push for a vote of no confidence in the national assembly against the ruling Pakistan Peoples' Party, handing Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani some breathing space.
Instead, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) gave Mr Gilani an ultimatum to implement a list of demands, which included slashing recently increased petrol prices and cutting government expenditure. Last night, the deadline for this ultimatum was extended three days to take into account the mourning period for the assassinated Punjab provincial governor, Salman Taseer.
The PPP lost its majority in the assembly on Sunday after its major ally, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), quit the ruling coalition apparently in protest over petrol prices. Another political ally, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal, a religious party, left the Cabinet last month.
Political analysts said having a minority government in charge of the country is not sustainable in the long term even if it manages to hobble along for now. The chances of the government completing its full term, which ends in 2013, seem bleak.
The government faces the serious challenges of an emaciated economy, high rates of inflation and fighting a war against militants. Continued political tumult has seriously affected the ability of Mr Gilani's administration to govern as it struggles to comply with the terms of an International Monetary Fund loan, analysts say.
Omar R Quraishi, the editor of the opinion pages of Express Tribune, a Karachi-based English-language newspaper, called on the prime minister to resign and "wrest the moral high ground by calling for a new election".
"The longer the prime minister stays in such a situation the weaker his position will become," said Quraishi.
"One should keep in mind that even if a no-confidence motion is not brought forward by the next largest party, the PML-N, there could be a vote on, say a new proposed bill, and so will the government keep postponing such matters out of fear of losing such a vote. After all, that in itself becomes a vote of confidence and if the government loses a vote for its own legislation it will lose the moral ground to remain in office."
Nawaz Sharif, the opposition leader and two times the former prime minister, and who heads the PML-N, announced in a meeting with party officials in Islamabad yesterday that he would not be part of any effort to oust the government by a no-confidence move.
Mr Sharif's decision is, in part, driven by suspicions that the country's powerful intelligence agencies have orchestrated the crisis by urging the MQM to abandon the Cabinet, party officials said.
Mr Sharif's public stance that it wants the government to complete its full term is borne out more out of expedience than principal, critics say. Mr Sharif expects that once the present government finishes its term, it would be the target of so much public discontent that his PML-N would be ensured a comfortable majority after the next general election.
While the MQM has opted out of the federal Cabinet it is still part of a coalition in the southern Sindh province, leading some to also speculate that the party is trying to extract maximum concessions, such as better federal ministries and administrative control of Karachi, from the PPP government.
Meanwhile, leaders of both the PPP and MQM are engaged in hectic negotiations to mend ties.
"The government should broaden its tax base; it should take back the price hike of petroleum products; it should impose tax on agricultural income", said Nasreen Jalil, an MQM leader and co-ordination committee member.
But government officials concede that these demands are just a smokescreen and the real tussle between the PPP and MQM is over the control of the southern port city of Karachi.
"It is a turf war that is going on," commented a close aide of President Asif Ali Zardari, speaking on condition of anonymity.
MQM has traditionally controlled the city, which is also the financial hub of the country. But its authority is increasingly under challenge by the PPP and Awami National Party, a secular Pashtun nationalist party.