• Euro 2016 semi-finals, France v Germany, Thursday 11pm
Semi-finals have tended to be defining games for Joachim Low’s Germany. They have lost two of their last three, to Spain in the 2010 World Cup and Italy in Euro 2012. They recorded perhaps the World Cup’s most remarkable ever result in their most recent. The 7-1 thrashing of host Brazil is a scoreline that will echo through the ages.
Two years on, history is repeating itself in one respect. Germany face hosts and favourites again. France have not beaten their neighbours in a major tournament since the third-place match in the 1958 World Cup. Now they may sense they will never get a better chance. Home advantage confers them one reason to believe. Another should come when the team sheets are submitted.
Germany will be depleted, shorn of the suspended Mats Hummels in defence and the hamstrung Mario Gomez in attack. In midfield, Sami Khedira’s groin problem rules him out while Bastian Schweinsteiger’s knee injury renders him a doubt, along with the reality that a footballer who had not played 30 minutes in a game since January had to last 105 against Italy on Sunday.
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Germany have decisions and dilemmas. For another country, it would be deemed a crisis. Europe’s more redoubtable, resourceful side tend to react to the loss of players not by bemoaning their bad luck but with a pragmatic assessment of what they need to do next. “We will not put our head in the sand,” said Low, who has vowed not to pick anyone who is not fully fit.
The temptation would be to dwell on others they have lost. Besides at least three components of the spine, they include three centurions – Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker and Miroslav Klose, winners of a combined 354 caps, who retired after the World Cup – and two with the talent to make a huge impact, Ilkay Gundogan and Marco Reus, who were omitted from the squad after ill-timed injuries.
The missing men do not tend to be constants in the conversation. "There are always injuries and suspensions for big games but you've got to compensate as a team," said Thomas Muller philosophically. The Bayern Munich man may have led by example by standing in for Gomez in attack. Germany possess enviable options in most positions. "I've never seen so much depth in our team," Muller added, yet the striking department is one exception. Gomez was the only specialist on the squad, so either Muller or Mario Gotze must deputise.
It is logical that Benedikt Howedes will continue alongside Jerome Boateng in the centre of defence, with Low reverting from three centre-backs to two after changing tactics against Italy. The winger Julian Draxler should be recalled in the systemic swap, but it still leaves a vacancy in the centre of midfield.
It will be the biggest game of his life for either 20-year-old Julian Weigl, a veteran of one cap, or 22-year-old Emre Can, who has played six internationals, but mainly as a full-back. Low suggested the Liverpool man may be the favourite to replace Khedira. "In training he has been very convincing," he said.
“The young players have shown they have the quality, not only the skills but the mental attitude,” said team manager Oliver Bierhoff. “I am convinced we can compensate for these absences.”
He speaks from experience. Germany approached the 1996 final without the suspended Andreas Moller and Stefan Reuter. The pivotal centre-back Jurgen Kohler, midfielder Mario Basler and striker Fredi Bobic were injured. Captain Jurgen Klinsmann, wing-back Christian Ziege and defender Thomas Helmer were not 100 per cent fit. There was even talk of fielding reserve goalkeeper Oliver Kahn as an outfield player.
Another team would have floundered. Germany overcame the Czech Republic at Wembley, with Bierhoff scoring both goals the last time they became European champions. “They were unbelievably strong mentally,” said Berti Vogts, their manager at the time.
Their successors may need to be similarly determined. Germany’s history suggests it is eminently possible.
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