With a new prime minister installed in Downing Street, Brexit negotiations may begin. Well, not quite. The last couple of weeks in British politics have been like a children’s pantomime in which the adults haven’t planned the ending very well. Resignations, plots of betrayal and a fair amount of comedy have all contributed towards a soap opera in which it would be unwise to second-guess the next twist or turn.
Many argue that Brexit was too much about personalities and not enough about policy. Indeed, that maxim still has many miles left in it.
Theresa May must now get her house in order and start negotiations in Brussels with EU officials who, generally speaking, would prefer to set an example to other member countries that Britain’s exit from the EU will come at a heavy cost. That same euro elite want Article 50 triggered as quickly as possible as the two-year deadline gives the EU an increasing advantage as the months pass.
Mrs May’s initial statements show that she has yet to seek broad advice from experts.
The negotiations will boil down to cutting EU immigration while ensuring the UK stays in the single market. But will those talks be directly with the EU Commission or member states in the European Council?
Observers state that the latter will be to Britain’s advantage as Germany will push for a more amicable deal that doesn’t have an impact on German jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
However, Jean Claude Juncker, EU Commission president, wishes to punish Britain.
His actions are beginning to anger Angela Merkel, who believes he is not the man to be in charge of the EU project. He may well be replaced next year by his deputy, the Dutchman Frans Timmermans, if he cannot find a more moderate line.
The EU is wobbling and Mrs Merkel knows this. She also knows that what is required is measured, rational leadership rather than “bickering” as one of her aides described Mr Juncker.
Mrs Merkel will want a smooth and painless exit of the UK from the EU. But she needs to find someone who can replace Mr Juncker who understands the importance of German jobs over the foibles of a few EU officials in Brussels.
Tony Blair has been in the media spotlight of late for his role in the Iraq war and the eventual publication of the Chilcot report. But he has also hinted that he would like to play a leading role in Brexit negotiations.
One crucial question about the Brexit talks is whether EU member states would grant UK an extension to the two years, when it arrives, as trade deals invariably require a much longer time frame to unwind. Smarter Eurosceptics understand the Article 50 trap and it is telling that Britain’s new Brexit minister David Davis wants to negotiate directly with Germany.
During Mr Blair’s period in office, the euro elite in Brussels treated him with great reverence. Watching him give speeches in Brussels and seeing the reaction to his presence was extraordinary. Brussels loves this man and it was often said that they considered him a future president. Mr Blair can’t now be president, given his nationality, but in the past high profile roles have temporarily been given to former EU leaders – like France’s Valerie Giscard d’Estaing – so, while it’s unlikely to happen it is not completely out of the question.
A dynamic and respected figure could pull off an extension to the talks. A whole new trade deal with the EU is required as it makes no sense to Germany and France if the UK can no longer afford to buy German cars or French produce. But the Article 50 trap can backfire on the EU if they adopt an obstinate strategy.
There’s a lot for both Britain and Brussels to consider. It’s clear though that some sort of one-size-fits-all trade tariff will probably be floated on all UK goods – a small price to pay for British firms now expanding and looking at new trade deals with India and other places. Keep your eyes on Tony Blair though, he may well emerge as a key figure in all of this.
Martin Jay is the Beirut correspondent for the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle
On Twitter: @MartinRJay