There was more to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech in the US Congress than protesting against a nuclear deal with Iran. Mr Netanyahu was worried about Israel losing its central role in Washington's relationship with the Middle East.
Yet the Obama administration has worried not only Israel, but also traditional Arab allies. In recent years the Americans have pursued a radical shift in their approach to the region. Their intentions were outlined early on by the "pivot to Asia". Really it was a pivot away from the Middle East.
Despite American intervention in Libya, and again in Iraq against ISIL, there are no signs that the administration’s resolve to disengage from the region has changed. For Mr Obama this is a philosophical issue, one shaped by his reading of a changing world.
Mr Obama believes the US is no longer capable of sustaining the foreign burdens that it once took on. Its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq nearly ruined the country financially, while significantly degrading the capacities of the military, which was stretched to its limits.
Because the Middle East was the focal point of this damaging policy, Mr Obama believes, it was necessary to scale back US involvement there. Meanwhile, greater challenges were rising in Asia, particularly the emergence of a more assertive China. For the administration, this dictated a fundamental rethinking of the policies of the Bush administration.
This led Mr Obama into a profound reconsideration of how to maintain stability in the Middle East. If America could not intercede at every occasion to maintain regional order, some arrangement had to replace this. From there it was only a step to arrive at acceptance of a major responsibility for Iran. An avowed political realist, Mr Obama looked to lay the groundwork for a new regional balance of power.
Perhaps Mr Obama was influenced by Henry Kissinger’s A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812-1822. The book argues that Europe enjoyed an extended period of peace after the Congress of Vienna reset boundaries in Europe following the Napoleonic Wars.
While Mr Obama has kept his cards close to his chest, his goal in the Middle East seems to be to replicate this. Only a balance between the main regional protagonists can bring stability. There may be instability for a time, but ultimately, once the major players have defined spheres of influence and methods of interaction, self-interest in cooperation will replace conflict. When the region introduces mechanisms to govern itself, the need for a powerful America to regulate regional affairs will no longer be necessary. Washington’s main concern in the interim will be to ensure that all actors are brought into the game in a harmonious way. This means that the US will seek to impose red lines to maintain an equilibrium.
Therefore, while Iran’s dominance in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is recognised, America will not allow Iran to seek inroads into Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, Jordan and Israel. In Yemen the situation is more complicated, because the administration seeks to do a number of things: combat Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which can mean looking more sympathetically on the Houthis, yet ensuring that the country does not threaten Saudi Arabia.
In light of this, Mr Netanyahu is right to view a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran as the first stage in normalisation that could redefine Iran’s regional role. A new balance of power would alter how Israel is perceived. Rather than being Washington’s dominant ally, Israel would see its importance diminished.
In light of this, the Americans could say that they have warned Israel enough, and to no avail, about the risks of failing to resolve the Palestinian problem. Unless Israel seriously works towards such a resolution, its regional status could be eroded from within. America is willing to help Israel, the argument goes, but not if Israel refuses to help itself.
Mr Netanyahu is right to feel that Mr Obama is fed up with the Israelis. But the president is not about to abandon them. Nor is he willing to harm US interests by conferring on Israel a status far in excess of what it merits, in his eyes. That’s especially true when Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to undermine Mr Obama’s agenda through Congress.
However, there is more to politics than what one reads in political science textbooks. All regional states have ambitions and fears, and will not gladly fit into Mr Obama’s neat template. Nor will they go along with it just because the US president wants to reduce America’s headaches in the region.
The European state system took more than a century to reach the post-Congress of Vienna level of stability, and even then it later led to multiple conflicts and two world wars in the 20th century. There is a smug finality in Mr Obama’s ambitions that is unsettling. Mr Netanyahu is a sordid man, but his doubts are shared by many.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Beirut
On Twitter: @BeirutCalling
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
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Profile
Name: Carzaty
Founders: Marwan Chaar and Hassan Jaffar
Launched: 2017
Employees: 22
Based: Dubai and Muscat
Sector: Automobile retail
Funding to date: $5.5 million
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
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Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
Virtuzone GCC Sixes
Date and venue Friday and Saturday, ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City
Time Matches start at 9am
Groups
A Blighty Ducks, Darjeeling Colts, Darjeeling Social, Dubai Wombats; B Darjeeling Veterans, Kuwait Casuals, Loose Cannons, Savannah Lions; C Awali Taverners, Darjeeling, Dromedary, Darjeeling Good Eggs
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
The%20Specs
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At a glance - Zayed Sustainability Prize 2020
Launched: 2008
Categories: Health, energy, water, food, global high schools
Prize: Dh2.2 million (Dh360,000 for global high schools category)
Winners’ announcement: Monday, January 13
Impact in numbers
335 million people positively impacted by projects
430,000 jobs created
10 million people given access to clean and affordable drinking water
50 million homes powered by renewable energy
6.5 billion litres of water saved
26 million school children given solar lighting
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
The specs: 2018 Audi Q5/SQ5
Price, base: Dh183,900 / Dh249,000
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder / 3.0L, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic / Eight-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,000rpm / 354hp @ 5,400rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,600rpm / 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy: combined 7.2L / 100km / 8.3L / 100km
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
My Cat Yugoslavia by Pajtim Statovci
Pushkin Press
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