Compared to the deal we needed, the climate accord struck this month by world leaders in Paris is disastrous, delivering only about half the carbon emissions cuts that are necessary to stave off dangerous global warming.
Despite this, the Paris Agreement was hailed as “a major leap for mankind” by French president François Hollande. Partly this is because the deal is not final. It is intended to form the basis for a “ratcheting up” of commitments in the years to come. But in truth, the importance of international superstructures has waned. In 2015, largely independent of the UN climate process, there was sign after sign that a safer future – if not quite here – is certainly on its way.
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“What we are seeing around the world is that the political risk of failing to act is growing, as climate-driven events come in on countries,” the chairman of environmental thinktank E3G Tom Burke told the BBC. “But the political risk of acting is going down, as renewables and the low-carbon economy begins to gather momentum, and the cost of dealing with climate change goes down.”
Despite the lack of an international agreement, at least 121 countries have already introduced domestic climate change laws. The UAE set the most ambitious emissions reduction targets in the Arab region in the lead up to the Paris conference, although they have not yet been signed into national law.
Jennifer Morgan, global director of the World Resources Institute climate programme, said the Paris Agreement “signals the acceleration of the pace and scale of change toward the low-carbon, climate resilient economy”.
Not the least important signal of 2015 was the trenchant voice of the climate itself. This will be the hottest year since records began, smashing the high set last year. Wildfires in Indonesia, drought in California, the ocean’s worst-ever coral bleaching event and the strongest tropical cyclones ever to hit Mexico and Yemen told the story of a discombobulated world.
In the face of these events, once-powerful climate sceptics look increasingly ridiculous and marginalised. This increased even more when the popularly cited “global warming pause” was shown not to exist by a US government study in June.
Meanwhile, more and more evidence accumulates that the world is reaching tipping points – events that once begun will be irreversible even with dramatic reductions in carbon emissions. Satellite assessments found massive sections of the great Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have begun to slip into the sea.
Yet the way out of this mess has never been clearer. In March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced 2014 was the first year in history when carbon emissions had stalled, despite continued economic growth. While it may only be temporary, this “decoupling” is vital for convincing recession-shy politicians that deep carbon cuts represent pragmatic strategy, rather than hippienomics.
As if to emphasise this, clean energy has now overtaken fossil fuels as the world’s fastest growing source of electricity.
“Renewable energy has become a mainstream fuel, as of now,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. Underwritten by massive green investments, this year Chinese demand for coal began to fall years ahead of schedule. In the US, it was reported that the coal industry had entered a structural decline, losing 80 per cent of its value in just five years.
"The underlying shifts in the economy are with, not against the climate," Burke told The National.
As share prices tumbled across fossil fuel sectors, so did the industry’s political influence. US president Barack Obama used his executive powers to force large power sector emissions cuts through Congress. In November he rejected the Keystone XL pipeline. In the same week, New York’s state attorney general moved to investigate ExxonMobil for its role in supporting climate denial over the past 25 years.
“Oil companies have just woken up to the fact that they are facing an existential crisis,” said Burke, who is a former adviser to BP.
A future in which fossil fuel use dwindles away is a direct threat to the UAE’s hydrocarbon prosperity. But the oil-rich country is also sun-rich, with some of the cheapest, most productive solar power on Earth. This will form the basis of a big push for renewables in the coming decade as it seeks to diversify its energy mix and economy.
Politically the shift began late in 2014 when the Chinese and US presidents signed a bilateral agreement to cut their emissions. This was followed by an announcement at the G7 meeting this year, where Angela Merkel wrestled leaders into an agreement to end fossil fuel use by 2100. This paved the way for an avalanche of 160 national commitments that are now enshrined in the Paris Agreement.
None of this is to assume the job is done. As the Paris deal stands, global temperatures will rise beyond the “limits” of 1.5°C and 2°C set by the text, to at least 2.7°C, enough to destroy lives, homes and entire species and may threaten the stability of our civilisation.
There is a vast distance still to travel. Huge gaps remain in the finance available for developing countries, the development of energy efficiency programmes and the decarbonisation of the agriculture and transport sectors. Yet there is little doubt 2015 will be remembered as the year humanity finally got serious about climate change; with the Paris deal just another stride along a path we are running down at increasing speed.
Karl Mathiesen is an environmental journalist, based in London.
Pact is a start not a solution
After 21 years of negotiations, the world’s first universal treaty on climate change was signed in Paris on December 12.
The Paris Agreement commits countries to a mutual goal of cutting enough carbon emissions to keep global warming below 2°C, or even 1.5°C if possible. It aims to reach global “net zero emissions” during the second half of this century.
It also recommits the rich world to providing $100bn per year in finance to poor countries to assist them with the transition to a clean economy and to cope with the stresses of existing climate change.
Significantly, it requires countries to revisit and deepen their pre-conference pledges in 2023 and every five years afterwards.
There are some elements that are legally binding. But the deal’s major device for holding governments to their word is global peer pressure coupled with transparency mechanisms. Because of such vagaries, the Paris Agreement has already been cast as both the turning of the tide against fossil fuels and a complete and utter failure.