Right from the start, Rudyard Kipling’s haunting poem If — appeals to the wisest of investors with its opening line: “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs …”
These words – written more than a century ago – remain more relevant than ever given the recent period of upheaval.
Those who can take heed of this advice are offered a huge windfall: “Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it …”
A return that certainly beats the index in any year.
And this past year has been marked by contradiction. Amid all of the uncertainty, the S&P500 index closed 2016 about 11 per cent higher. Utter madness. But if anyone had any hope that this irrational exuberance, to paraphrase the former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, might settle down as we enter a new year, think again. The next era of disruption is about to burst upon us – and it will be unleashed by a deluge of entrepreneurial spirit stoked by a desperation to find some certainty in this new world.
Changes in the economy and the workplace have already galvanised people across the globe into unprecedented action – both productive and destructive forms. The opportunity for more upheaval is abundant as artificial intelligence, the affordability of 3D printing and cheaper alternative forms of energy continue to impact industry and jobs.
People will feel compelled to turn to their own entrepreneurial endeavours. If the traditional route is so uncertain then why not forge your own path, they will reason. The risk premium on starting your own business is looking like good value these days, as the downsides of being an employee grow in number.
The bankruptcy law, the limited employment opportunities at larger companies, greater efficiency and transparency, and a clampdown on corruption have all been recent, significant developments in creating a more conducive environment for start-ups in the UAE.
Funding is also ready to be deployed by private and public sector investors.
Ally this to the perpetual motion that is technological progress and you have a recipe for an entrepreneurial frenzy.
The rapid expansion of the SME sector will be good for the whole economy in the short to medium term, creating jobs, filling offices, homes and retail spaces, paying government fees and stimulating innovation and competition.
People will again begin to feel wealthy and successful – at least for a time.
The reality of such a boom in small businesses is of course that most will actually fail.
Kipling offers advice in this regard too: “If you can make one heap of all your winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, and lose, and start again at your beginnings …”
malrawi@thenational.ae
Mustafa Alrawi is The National's business editor.
business@thenational.ae
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