The Golden Globes traditionally blaze a trail for Hollywood in January, giving us a few clues about who is hot and who is not in the awards season – but make no mistake, it’s the Academy Awards that matter most.
Detracting from the festivities this year are some shocking snubs – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, one of the biggest movies in history, failed to make the best-picture cut, while Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) and Michael Keaton (Spotlight) were likewise ignored.
Most notably, though, all-white acting nominations for a second year in a row has dented Oscar’s reputation. We fully expect brassy host Chris Rock to join in the diversity debate during the show.
But without diminishing the importance of the issues, let us set the political brouhaha aside for a moment and focus on the event itself. Here’s what to expect in the main categories.
• The 88th Academy Awards airs at 5.30am (live) and 11am (rerun) on Monday on OSN Movies Premiere. Red carpet coverage begins at 2am (live) and 9.30am (rerun). Ryan Seacrest and Giuliana Rancic will also cover the red carpet from 2.30am on E! Entertainment
Best Picture
Nominees: The Big Short; Bridge of Spies; Brooklyn; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian; The Revenant; Room; and Spotlight
The Buzz: In 2011, balloting rules were changed to allow up to 10 nominees (double the previous five) for Best Picture. This year, nine are in the running.
Three have pulled ahead of the pack at other awards ceremonies: financial comedy-drama The Big Short, about four outsiders who saw the writing on the wall before the housing-bubble burst; Spotlight, the true story of how Boston journalists shook the Catholic church to its core by uncovering a child-abuse scandal; and The Revenant, about a bear-mauled, grief-stricken frontiersman in 1825 who braves the winter wilderness to exact revenge on a "friend" who left him for dead.
With Golden Globe and Bafta victories already under its belt, momentum clearly favours The Revenant.
Prediction: The Revenant
Best Actor
Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; and Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
The Buzz: This is the strongest field in years, with each actor delivering a tour-de-force performance. Bryan Cranston soars as screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, whose courage to fight for individual liberty helped to put an end to the shameful Hollywood blacklist of the 1950s, while Michael Fassbender injects a captivating icy coolness into his portrayal of the late Apple guru Steve Jobs.
But it is Leonardo DiCaprio’s gut-wrenching crawl through frozen mountains, plus the fact he’s gone home empty-handed four times, that has Hollywood in his corner.
Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; and Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
The Buzz: Few expected Jennifer Lawrence to be nominated yet again (her fourth nod, with two wins already at the age of 25), this time for her portrayal of Miracle Mop inventor Joy Mangano.
Still, the real heat in this category radiates from two relative newcomers: Brie Larson, who in Room plays a woman held captive for years who finally escapes with her young son, and Saoirse Ronan, who stars in Brooklyn as an Irish immigrant in 1950s New York.
Prediction: Brie Larson, with Saoirse Ronan as a potential upset
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; and Sylvester Stallone, Creed
The Buzz: For his excellent reprisal of Rocky Balboa, now a retired prizefighter who steps back into the ring as a coach and mentor to his friend's son, Sylvester Stallone is the sentimental favourite and front-runner, bolstered by a Golden Globe win. If anyone can deliver a knockout blow to Rocky, it will be Tom Hardy, who enjoyed a wildly entertaining, crowd-pleasing surge this year, also appearing in Mad Max: Fury Road and Legend.
Prediction: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; and Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
The Buzz: This is the toughest category to call – it is really a wide-open race. Kate Winslet was great as a marketing executive and confidant to Apple legend Steve Jobs – but she is up against the rising star-power of Vikander, as a 1920s portrait artist confronted with her husband's transformation into a woman, and Mara, whose character falls into a complicated relationship with the elegant Carol (Cate Blanchett) in 1950s Manhattan. Winslet's credentials as an Oscar veteran (she won in 2008 for The Reader and is on her seventh nomination) might give her the edge.
Prediction: Kate Winslet
‘It’s probably going to be Leo’s year’
If you stand in a line long enough at the amusement park, you'll get the front of the queue – and with this, his fifth acting nomination, Leonardo DiCaprio is a shoo-in to soar to the top of the Hollywood rollercoaster, for his gruelling revenge odyssey in The Revenant.
Despite three Golden Globes – including top-acting honours in January for The Revenant – and many other acting awards over the years, DiCaprio has yet to stand at the winner's podium on Oscar night.
Kate Winslet, who played Rose to Leo's Jack in Titanic, recently told BBC News that a DiCaprio wave is at long last washing over Hollywood.
“I think you can sort of feel it, and I think that everyone wants it for him,” says Winslet, herself nominated for best supporting actress for her role in Steve Jobs. “I think you can sort of feel the temperature. It’s probably going to be Leo’s year.”
A Rock and a hard place
African-American Chris Rock may have a hard time joking his way through a ceremony in crisis – but you can be sure he’ll give it a good shot.
Without rehashing the controversy surrounding the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag, one thing is certain – the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is smarting – and has pinned its hopes on Rock to save their big night.
The best thing Rock has going for him is his snide fearlessness in front of an audience – and a track record that crackles with the kind of brash mental agility he will need to outshine the boycotts and protests.
For Rock, who’s expected to use his monologue to tackle the hullabaloo, it’ll be a tightrope walk The Flying Wallendas would envy. But even with the future of the Oscars on the line, just don’t expect much in the way of diplomacy from him.