Timid leadership on US forces by Iraq's politicians

Iraqi politicians do not even dare to express their opinions on the withdrawal of US forces. That kind of weakness risks the country's stability.

Iraqis have plenty of room to criticise the US war, which was launched on false premises and sometimes waged with a staggering degree of incompetence. Even those who celebrated the fall of Saddam Hussein have rarely been silent on Washington's failings. But with the deadline for a full US troop withdrawal looming at the end of the year, politicians are uncharacteristically tongue-tied.

The dilemma was framed by an Iraqi journalist in a National article yesterday: "Speak to a politician off the record and almost all of them are begging the American army to stay," the journalist said. "Turn on your recorder and they instantly change their position and say the Americans must leave or face the consequences."

That two-faced approach to the Americans is not unique to Iraqi politicians. The US record in the region is rarely easy to defend. But the inability of Iraq's leaders to make tough decisions and weather the political fallout risks the country's stability.

Security gains have been made in eight years of fighting, and Iraqi forces can claim some credit. Yet daily attacks along sectarian lines continue to kill civilians, tensions between Arabs and Kurds threaten new fault lines in Kirkuk, and many fear Iran's influence. Iraqi politicians are correct to worry about security in the absence of US forces.

Of course, the opposite is also possible. Iraqis could, after nearly a decade of relying on foreign forces, work things out for themselves. Indeed, at some point, they must. But the fact that many politicians believe that Iraqi security is not ready - and yet are unwilling to say so publicly - points to a serious disconnect between politics and facts on the ground.

The Iraqi democratic experiment began in 2005 has been a messy affair. The main opponent to a continued US presence, the Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, has inordinate influence over the administration in Baghdad because his support is crucial to President Nouri Al Maliki's coalition.

The key sticking point now is whether US forces will be given legal immunity from prosecution - a condition that Mr Al Maliki has been unwilling to negotiate, despite his apparent recognition that a rapid US withdrawal is risky. We question the wisdom of a blanket immunity, with the crimes of Abu Ghraib and Haditha still fresh in everyone's mind, but the inability to even discuss the issue reflects a fundamental weakness in Iraqi politics.

Iraqi politicians let down their constituencies by pretending the hard questions do not have to be answered. And if the politics are broken, what chance is there to repair the peace?